ADA Rally Stalls at $0.187 as Analyst Flags 25% Drop Risk

Cardano has climbed roughly 15% over the past month, ranking among the strongest performers in the broader crypto market, but the rally has lost momentum in recent sessions. Analyst Ali Martinez has flagged a combination of weakening whale demand, a bearish technical crossover, and a fresh sell signal that together point to the risk of a substantially deeper pullback, even after ADA’s strongest run since early June.

Whale Buying Reverses Course

ADA opened August strongly after large investors accumulated more than 240 million coins in under a week, according to Santiment data, pushing whale holdings to roughly 14.5 billion ADA and helping the token climb to almost $0.21, its highest level since early June. That momentum has since reversed. Martinez reported that the number of wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA fell from 2,370 to 2,340 in recent days, a decline that suggests some mid-sized holders are reducing exposure rather than adding to it. ADA has retraced from its early-August peak to trade near $0.187, according to CoinGecko.

Martinez also pointed to a death cross forming between Cardano’s MVRV ratio and its 7-day simple moving average, a technical signal that typically points to weakening momentum and raises the risk of a deeper correction. Separately, ADA’s TD Sequential indicator has printed a sell signal on the daily chart, a pattern traders watch for early signs of a potential trend reversal.

Grayscale’s ETF Exit Removes a Catalyst

The technical warning signs coincide with a setback on the institutional front. Grayscale withdrew its S-1 registration for a spot Cardano ETF on August 7, filing under SEC Rule 477 in a voluntary decision that removes a product bulls had hoped would boost institutional demand and support price appreciation. The withdrawal followed related exchange listing proposals that had already lapsed in late 2025, and Grayscale confirmed the registration statement was never declared effective and no shares were sold. Other pending altcoin ETF filings from the firm remain active.

Not every signal points lower. ADA exchange outflows have exceeded inflows over the past several days, indicating investors are moving tokens from centralized exchanges into self-custody wallets, a pattern that typically reduces the immediate supply available for selling and can ease near-term downside pressure even during a broader pullback.

• Whale wallets (1M-10M ADA) fell from 2,370 to 2,340 in recent days
• Grayscale’s ETF withdrawal removes a near-term institutional catalyst, though other pending Cardano-related filings remain active

Conclusion

Cardano’s setup now hinges on which signal wins out: fading whale participation and bearish technical crossovers on one side, or reduced exchange supply on the other. Martinez’s warning doesn’t guarantee a 25% decline will materialize, but the convergence of a death cross, a TD Sequential sell signal, and shrinking whale positions gives the bearish case more technical weight than the self-custody trend currently offsets. Whether ADA holds above its recent lows or extends the pullback toward deeper support will likely depend on whether whale accumulation resumes before momentum indicators deteriorate further.