AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds 38.2% Fibonacci Support Near 0.7100

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades around 0.7117 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, holding relatively steady after recent gains. The Aussie continues to find support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could tighten monetary policy again at its September 29 meeting. Markets are assigning a high probability to another 25-basis-point increase as inflation risks remain elevated.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to address but warned that second-round inflation effects still require attention. She also said neutral rates are rising globally, pushing real bond yields higher.

The latest RBA signals have strengthened expectations for another hike, with Commonwealth Bank economists now forecasting a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60% at the September meeting.

Fed Outlook Limits AUD/USD Upside

The US Dollar remains firm as the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive policy stance. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and indicated that another increase could follow later this year.

That policy divergence creates a mixed backdrop for AUD/USD. Expectations of additional RBA tightening can support the Australian Dollar, while the prospect of another Fed hike keeps the US Dollar underpinned.

Bullock’s comments also highlighted the impact of energy prices and persistent domestic demand on Australian inflation. With higher energy costs creating additional price pressures, upcoming inflation and economic data will remain important for the RBA’s next policy decision.

0.7096 Defines Key Fibonacci Support

On the daily chart, AUD/USD trades around 0.7120 while remaining below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7138 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7150. This keeps the short-term technical structure mildly bearish until the pair regains those levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 indicates consolidating momentum rather than a strong directional move. Sellers retain a modest technical advantage while the pair remains below the overhead resistance zone.

Key levels to monitor are:

• 38.2% Fibonacci: 0.7096
• 50.0% Fibonacci: 0.7052
• 61.8% Fibonacci: 0.7008
• 20-period EMA: 0.7138
• 23.6% Fibonacci: 0.7150
• Major resistance: 0.7237

A sustained move above 0.7138 would expose 0.7150, while a break above that level could shift attention toward 0.7237. Conversely, a decisive move below 0.7096 would strengthen the downside setup and bring 0.7052 and 0.7008 into focus.

Conclusion

AUD/USD remains supported near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7096 as expectations for another RBA rate hike provide support for the Australian Dollar. However, the pair remains below the 20-period EMA at 0.7138 and 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.7150, keeping the near-term technical structure cautious. A break above 0.7150 would expose 0.7237, while a loss of 0.7096 could open the way toward 0.7052 and 0.7008.