XRP’s path to $5 has returned to focus as Polymarket traders slash the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 27%. A separate contract gives the Senate only a 28% chance of holding any recorded vote on the bill before the August recess. With XRP trading near $1.08, reaching $5 would require a gain of approximately 363%, while longer-term bullish forecasts still point to major upside by 2030.
CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 27% on Polymarket; XRP Needs 363% Gain to Hit $5
Polymarket traders now assign only a 27% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) will pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law by Dec. 31, 2026. The contract, which has generated more than $3.8 million in trading volume, saw odds briefly approach 80% in February before trending sharply lower. A second Polymarket market prices the chance of any Senate recorded vote connected to the legislation by 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 7 at just 28%.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Tuesday he still expected the chamber to take up the bill this week, even though it was absent from Monday’s floor schedule. The Senate has only three scheduled session days left before its state work period begins Aug. 10, with lawmakers expected to return Sept. 14.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation 15-9 in May. Senator Cynthia Lummis released an updated 616-page merged text on July 22 combining Banking and Agriculture Committee work and warned that “the coming weeks are likely the last real chance we will have for years to get this right.”
Meanwhile, Motley Fool contributor William Ebiefung argued in June that XRP could reach $5 by 2030. At the then-price of $1.34 the target required a 273% gain (roughly 39% compound annual growth). At the current level near $1.08 the same target would demand an approximately 363% increase, or a 4.6-fold return, placing XRP about 41% above its 2025 cycle high of roughly $3.55–$3.65.
Why CLARITY Odds Fell to 27%: Ethics Deadlock Risks Midterm Delay for XRP Catalysts
The sharp drop in CLARITY Act odds reflects growing skepticism that Congress can resolve remaining disputes—especially political-ethics restrictions, stablecoin rewards, decentralized finance rules, developer liability, and anti-money-laundering requirements—before the legislative calendar tightens further. Missing the pre-recess window would push the fight deeper into a midterm election year.
For XRP holders the regulatory uncertainty is particularly relevant because clearer rules on digital asset classification and market structure are widely viewed as potential catalysts for institutional adoption and spot ETF progress. At the same time, the low near-term odds contrast with longer-term bullish arguments that rest on historical cycle patterns, improving macro conditions, lower interest rates, and expanding institutional access.
Former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond recently placed the probability of 2026 passage at 50–75%, higher than Polymarket, while noting that regulated blockchain infrastructure winners may include stablecoin issuers and trading platforms rather than every digital asset equally.
CLARITY Act Path: House 294-134, Senate 15-9 Vote; XRP Cycles Point to $5 by 2030
The CLARITY Act aims to divide regulatory responsibility for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House passed its version 294–134 in July 2025. After the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 advance in May 2026, negotiations have focused on ethics provisions demanded by key Democrats and other contested sections.
XRP’s price history shows major peaks in 2018, 2021, and 2025. Ebiefung and other long-term bulls argue that another multi-year cycle could emerge before 2030, supported by Ripple’s continued push into traditional finance and the possibility of easier institutional access via spot ETFs once regulatory clarity improves. At current levels near $1.08, XRP remains well below both its 2025 high and the ambitious $5 long-term target.
What’s Next: 3 Days Left for CLARITY Vote; XRP Eyes $1 Floor and $5 Path
Attention turns to whether Senate Majority Leader Thune schedules any procedural votes in the final three session days before the August recess. A recorded vote, even if unsuccessful, would keep the bill alive; failure to act would shift the next realistic window to September and increase the risk of further delay into the midterm election cycle.
Traders will also watch Polymarket odds for any rebound if ethics negotiations advance, as well as XRP’s ability to hold above $1.00 amid broader crypto market conditions. Longer-term investors continue to debate whether historical cycle patterns and institutional progress can still deliver the multi-fold gains required to reach $5 by 2030.