Bitcoin has soared past $111,000, reigniting bullish sentiment as a rare Gaussian channel flip signals renewed market strength. The last two occurrences of this technical shift — in 2017 and 2021 — preceded massive multi-month rallies and cycle peaks.
Analyst Merlijn The Trader noted that each historical green flip marked the early phase of parabolic growth. This indicator, he explained, confirms a long-term transition toward bullish territory. Institutional investors appear to be responding accordingly, with whale wallets showing fresh accumulation despite recent market volatility.
Key observations from Merlijn’s analysis include:
- Gaussian channel turning green for the first time since 2021.
- Historical flips coinciding with major accumulation zones.
- Institutional inflows rising during technical retests.
These developments strengthen Bitcoin’s broader uptrend, suggesting that the current setup mirrors previous expansion phases.
Bull Market Retest Reinforces Technical Strength
Bitcoin has also retested its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) — a level that historically defines each bull market continuation zone. Since 2023, every retest of this line has triggered renewed upside momentum and institutional entry.
Merlijn emphasized that the 50-week SMA acts as Bitcoin’s “golden support,” underpinning all major lift-offs in the ongoing cycle. Each interaction with this level has corresponded with periods of smart money accumulation, while retail investors typically join after visible breakouts.
This cyclical behavior highlights:
- Ongoing institutional accumulation during quiet phases.
- The SMA’s role as a key technical foundation.
- Market maturity and reduced speculative volatility.
The confluence of technical resilience and sustained buying pressure paints a constructive long-term outlook.
Fed Policy and U.S.–China Talks Bolster Confidence
Geopolitical and monetary catalysts are also supporting the bullish case. U.S.–China trade progress, following President Trump’s confirmation of an October 31 meeting with President Xi Jinping, has eased global uncertainty. His assurance that “it will all be fine” boosted investor sentiment across risk assets.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s 95% probability of a late-October rate cut has strengthened liquidity expectations. Historically, such dovish monetary environments drive capital inflows into cryptocurrencies. One prominent insider reportedly opened $255 million in long Bitcoin and Ethereum positions ahead of the summit — a bet on easing trade tensions and accommodative policy.
Together, these developments align both technical and macro forces in Bitcoin’s favor. If history repeats, the convergence of a Gaussian flip, a successful bull retest, and improving global sentiment could set the stage for another parabolic advance into 2025.