EUR/USD forecast: The euro faces resistance at 1.1568 as traders assess U.S.-Iran tensions. Key levels include 1.1600, 1.1629 and 1.1700.
EUR/USD Faces Key Technical Barrier
EUR/USD is set to close Monday with a loss of roughly 0.13%, as renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations weighs on the euro. The currency pair also encountered strong technical resistance near 1.1568, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has limited further gains.
The euro’s recovery remains intact after buyers pushed EUR/USD back above its 50-day SMA. However, the inability to clear the 100-day SMA highlights a critical test for bullish momentum. A sustained move above this level could signal that buyers are regaining control of the broader trend.
For now, traders are balancing geopolitical developments with the pair’s technical structure. The delayed U.S.-Iran talks have added uncertainty to currency markets, keeping demand for the U.S. dollar relatively firm and limiting the euro’s upside.
1.1568 Resistance Holds EUR/USD Back
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD maintains a modest bullish bias after reclaiming its 50-day SMA. Momentum indicators also support the near-term recovery, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing to improving buying pressure. Still, the 100-day SMA around 1.1568 remains the immediate obstacle. A daily close above this resistance could strengthen the bullish setup and open the way toward the 1.1600 level.
Beyond 1.1600, traders will focus on the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. This longer-term moving average could provide another significant test for euro buyers before the pair approaches the psychologically important 1.1700 level.
Key upside levels include:
- 1.1568: 100-day SMA resistance
- 1.1600: First major upside target
- 1.1629: 200-day SMA
- 1.1700: Key psychological resistance
EUR/USD Downside Risks Remain
Despite the improving short-term outlook, EUR/USD could quickly lose momentum if sellers push the pair below 1.1500. Such a move would weaken the recent recovery and bring the 50-day SMA near 1.1469 back into focus. A break below 1.1469 would expose the 1.1400 area, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the decline. Further weakness could then send EUR/USD toward the July 28 swing low at 1.1353.
The technical picture therefore remains finely balanced. Holding above 1.1500 keeps the recovery scenario alive, while a decisive break above 1.1568 would provide stronger confirmation for the bulls. Conversely, a move below 1.1469 would shift momentum back toward sellers.
Sources & Methodology
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