EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1465 Holds as Fed Hike Keeps Bearish Bias Intact

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1465 in early European hours on Thursday, remaining under pressure after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The move was widely expected, but the Fed’s updated projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s message pointed to another possible increase later this year. The dollar strengthened after the decision, pushing EUR/USD below 1.1500 and toward fresh multi-week lows.

Fed Rate Hike Supports Dollar

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Updated projections showed a strong majority of officials see scope for another hike in 2026, keeping the U.S. monetary-policy outlook restrictive.

The market reaction was immediate. Reuters reported that the U.S. dollar climbed to a seven-week high after the decision, while the two-year Treasury yield reached 4.7153%. The Dollar Index moved above the psychologically important 100 level as traders reassessed the path for U.S. borrowing costs.

For EUR/USD, the key issue is the widening policy contrast. The Fed now holds rates materially above the European Central Bank, which lifted its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10. The ECB also said it would not pre-commit to further policy moves.

• EUR/USD: Around 1.1465
• Fed target range: 3.75%-4.00%
• ECB deposit rate: 2.50%
• Next U.S. catalyst: Initial Jobless Claims

EUR/USD Technical Levels Matter

The technical picture remains bearish while EUR/USD trades below its major reference lines. The pair is holding beneath the 100-day SMA and the Bollinger Bands middle line, while price remains below the lower Bollinger Band.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 31.9, close to oversold territory. This indicates that selling pressure is stretched, but it does not by itself signal that the decline has ended. FXStreet’s latest technical assessment continues to describe the near-term structure as bearish.

Immediate resistance is located at the former lower Bollinger Band near 1.1485. Above that, the 100-day SMA around 1.1550 remains a significant barrier. A stronger recovery would then face the Bollinger middle band near 1.1605.

On the downside, the recent low around 1.1450 is the first important reference. The latest FXStreet analysis also identifies 1.1400 as the next major downside level if sellers maintain control.

Jobless Claims Add Next Test

The U.S. economic calendar provides another potential source of volatility Thursday, with Initial Jobless Claims due later in the session. A strong labor-market reading could reinforce expectations for restrictive Fed policy, while weaker data could reduce some of the dollar’s recent momentum.

The broader market remains sensitive to U.S. bond yields, inflation expectations and energy prices. Elevated oil prices have kept inflation concerns relevant on both sides of the Atlantic, complicating the outlook for central banks.

For EUR/USD, the technical thresholds are relatively clear. A sustained recovery above 1.1485 would provide the first sign of stabilization, while a break below 1.1450 would reinforce the bearish structure. Reclaiming 1.1550 would be a more significant technical improvement.

Conclusion:

EUR/USD remains near 1.1465 after the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled another possible increase in 2026. The euro faces additional pressure from the widening U.S.-Eurozone rate differential, while the pair’s technical structure remains weak below 1.1550. The immediate levels to monitor are 1.1485 and 1.1550 on the upside and 1.1450 on the downside. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and further Fed guidance could determine the next move.