The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trading with modest intraday losses against the U.S. Dollar (USD) as markets lean toward a risk-on sentiment. The shift follows recent signals from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated a possible temporary exemption on 25% auto tariffs and a pause on levies targeting consumer electronics. This development has eased investor anxiety, dampening demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen.
By early European trading on Tuesday, USD/JPY hovered near 144.00, reflecting a muted but steady climb. Despite the Yen’s weakness, analysts urge caution before declaring a long-term bearish trend, citing factors that could still support JPY in the near term.
Factors Pressuring the Yen:
- Improved market sentiment due to reduced U.S. tariff fears
- Receding safe-haven demand, reducing short-term JPY appeal
- Ongoing USD strength, supported by stable U.S. economic indicators
Trade Hopes, Policy Divergence Provide Support
While market momentum favors the U.S. Dollar, several underlying factors may help cushion the Yen from deeper declines. Hopes for a U.S.-Japan trade agreement have gained traction, which could stabilize the Japanese economy and lend strength to its currency.
Moreover, monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is coming into sharper focus. Investors increasingly expect the BoJ to maintain or even raise rates in the coming months, a stark contrast to growing speculation that the Fed may pause or reverse rate hikes to avoid over-tightening.
These opposing trajectories could temper the USD’s rise against the Yen and introduce near-term volatility.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY faces significant resistance and support levels that traders are closely monitoring.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 144.00: Near-term swing high
- 144.50: Horizontal barrier
- 146.00: Psychological mark and extended rally target
Support Zones to Watch:
- 143.00: Minor pullback area
- 142.20: Multi-month low
- 141.00 – 140.25: Broader support range including September’s swing low
A break above 144.50 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward 145.50 or even 146.00. On the downside, a fall below 142.00 may shift momentum in favor of JPY bulls, potentially dragging the pair down to the 140.00 mark.
While the USD/JPY pair remains in a tight range, traders should watch both macroeconomic signals and technical thresholds for clues about the pair’s next decisive move. The interplay between trade policy, central bank direction, and global risk sentiment will shape the Yen’s path in the sessions ahead.
