Global oil prices remained firm early Wednesday following a 4% surge the day prior, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and an unexpected plunge in U.S. oil inventories. Brent crude futures edged down 0.2% to $76.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 0.1% to $73.19 per barrel during early Asian trading.
This stability comes despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop. The conflict between Israel and Iran has now extended into its sixth day. Israel’s recent strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure has reignited fears of a broader regional war, heightening the risk of supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East.
Prices remain close to their highest levels since January, reflecting market nervousness about the potential for conflict-related disruptions to global energy flows.
Middle East Conflict Raises Supply Risks
Market sentiment has been deeply affected by the intensifying hostilities in the Middle East. Israel and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes, and diplomatic efforts to contain the violence appear to be faltering.
The U.S. is increasingly seen as a potential direct participant in the conflict. Former President Donald Trump has reportedly urged Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” with a Wall Street Journal report indicating that a U.S. military strike on Iran is under active consideration.
Additionally, the U.S. has moved more fighter aircraft to the region, though it has not yet engaged directly in the conflict.
Key risk factors affecting oil supply:
- Potential Iranian retaliation on regional oil infrastructure
- Restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. military buildup and heightened sanctions
U.S. Oil Stockpiles Drop Sharply
Adding further pressure to supply concerns, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed that U.S. crude inventories shrank by a staggering 10.13 million barrels last week—far exceeding forecasts for a 600,000-barrel draw.
This outsized decline, combined with the approach of the high-demand summer driving season, has reinforced expectations of rising U.S. fuel consumption in the coming months.
However, the optimism is tempered by signs of broader economic softness. May’s retail sales and industrial production figures both fell short of expectations, renewing concerns that sluggish economic growth could dampen fuel demand.
Investors are now closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next move. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the central bank’s tone on future policy will be key amid the uncertain outlook.
