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Bitcoin Sinks 2% to $115,664 as Rate Cut Hopes Fade, Geopolitical Risks Rise

Bitcoin fell 2% to $115,664 after record highs above $124,000, pressured by fading Fed rate cut hopes and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Editor at AAFX.IO
Aug 18, 2025
Updated Aug 18, 2025
Bitcoin Sinks 2% to $115,664 as Rate Cut Hopes Fade, Geopolitical Risks Rise

Bitcoin slipped below $116,000 on Monday, reversing gains from last week’s record rally, as investor sentiment soured on shifting central bank expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 2% at $115,664.5 by 01:58 ET (05:58 GMT). This marks a sharp pullback from last week, when Bitcoin surged to an all-time high above $124,000 before losing momentum.

The latest slide follows hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price data that reignited concerns over inflation, particularly from tariff-related pressures. Those readings dampened the case for more aggressive Federal Reserve easing in September.

Fed Outlook and Political Risks Pressure Crypto

Data released last week showed both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and import prices running hotter than forecasts, prompting traders to temper expectations for a deep rate cut. According to CME FedWatch, markets now largely anticipate a 25-basis-point cut rather than a half-point reduction.

On the geopolitical front, uncertainty increased after the Alaska summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended without a deal on Ukraine. Trump shifted his position by backing a comprehensive peace agreement over an immediate ceasefire, a move widely viewed as strengthening Moscow’s leverage.

Investors are now focused on Trump’s upcoming meeting in Washington with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders. Whether the talks move toward a settlement or fuel further tensions could influence demand for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Key market drivers:

  • Fed policy outlook: Expectations scale back to a 25-basis-point cut.
  • Geopolitics: No Ukraine breakthrough; talks resume in Washington.
  • Inflation risks: U.S. PPI points to persistent price pressures.

Investors Shift Toward Safe Havens

The risk-off tone in financial markets benefited traditional safe-haven assets. Gold rose 0.7% to $3,357.73 an ounce, reflecting renewed demand from investors seeking stability ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week.

Bitcoin Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Meanwhile, other digital assets followed Bitcoin lower. Ether retreated further from recent near-record highs, highlighting how sensitive cryptocurrencies remain to macroeconomic shifts and global political developments.

As volatility intensifies, traders are weighing whether Bitcoin’s retreat signals a deeper correction or a temporary pause before another rally. Much depends on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments later this week and the outcome of ongoing geopolitical negotiations.

Sources & Methodology

Primary-source standard: Market-moving facts should link to original data releases, regulator notices, company filings or official project announcements whenever available. Secondary reporting is used for additional context, not as a substitute for original evidence.

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Market information only: This article is for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including possible loss of capital. Verify current prices and terms before making financial decisions.
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Arslan Ali Butt
Arslan Ali Butt is the founder and Lead Market Analyst at AAFX.io, with more than a decade of experience covering forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, equities, and global macroeconomic trends. He holds an MBA in Finance and an MPhil in Behavioral Finance, combining academic research with practical market experience in technical analysis, dealing-desk operations, risk management, market sentiment, and trading psychology. Since 2014, Arslan has produced data-driven market analysis, price forecasts, trading education, and live webinars for international audiences. His research and commentary have been published by FXEmpire, FXLeaders, FXStreet, TradingKey, Cryptonews, KuCoin Learn, InsideBitcoins, Business2Community, ForexCrunch, EconomyWatch, ACY Securities, and FlowBank. Through AAFX.io, he provides independent, transparent, and clearly sourced market news and analysis designed to help readers understand financial markets and make better-informed decisions.
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