Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is flashing bullish technical signals despite recent market turbulence. On the daily chart, the token has carved out a bullish flag formation, often seen as a precursor to sharp rallies.
Between June 22 and July 28, HBAR climbed from $0.1230 to $0.3055, forming the flagpole. Since then, the price has consolidated within a descending channel—the “flag” portion of the setup. Historically, such patterns resolve in upward breakouts.
Technical calculations suggest that if HBAR clears resistance, it could advance to $0.3800, marking a potential 60% rise from the breakout level. More broadly, the setup supports an extended uptrend if bullish sentiment takes hold.
Elliott Wave Supports 86% Rally
Beyond flag dynamics, Elliott Wave theory highlights further upside potential. HBAR has:
- Held above its 200-day EMA, providing a critical support base.
- Formed a double-bottom at $0.1230, with a neckline near $0.2262.
- Executed a break-and-retest, reinforcing the bullish reversal case.
The token now appears to be in the second phase of an Elliott Wave impulse, typically a corrective retracement of 50–61.8% of the first wave. If the third wave unfolds, as patterns often dictate, HBAR could revisit $0.40, roughly 86% above current prices.
Still, a decisive drop below the 200-day EMA would invalidate the bullish forecast, exposing the token to renewed downside pressure.
ETF Catalyst vs. Ecosystem Weakness
The most immediate potential catalyst is the pending Canary HBAR ETF. The product was recently recognized by the DTCC, signaling progress toward regulatory approval. If cleared by the SEC, it could attract U.S. institutional inflows, similar to other spot crypto ETFs.
Yet, challenges within Hedera’s ecosystem remain pronounced:
- Total Value Locked (TVL): $220 million, down from nearly $400 million YTD.
- Stablecoin supply: Only $86 million, limiting participation in payment use cases.
- DEX volume: Just $8.74 million in the past 24 hours, reflecting weak DeFi traction.
- Limited integrations: Absent major DeFi names like Uniswap or Aave; reliant on Stader, SaucerSwap, and Bonzo Finance.
Partnerships with Google, IBM, and Ubisoft give Hedera strong enterprise credibility, but until its decentralized finance presence deepens, long-term growth may face headwinds.
In short, HBAR’s charts suggest a powerful rally could be forming, reinforced by Elliott Wave momentum and ETF speculation. But weak DeFi activity and shrinking stablecoin adoption highlight risks that investors cannot ignore.
