The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, trading below 1.1550 in Friday’s European session as the U.S. Dollar rebounds 0.4% amid rising risk aversion. A wave of global tech sell-offs, disappointing U.S. employment figures, and the extended government shutdown have collectively fueled demand for the greenback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is sliding toward 50, signaling waning bullish momentum. The pair also retreated after approaching the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting a short-term cap on recovery attempts.
Immediate support levels for EUR/USD include:
- 1.1500 – Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend
- 1.1450 – Key static level
- 1.1425 – Lower boundary of the descending regression channel
On the upside, resistance appears near:
- 1.1550 – 50-period SMA
- 1.1580 – Fibonacci 61.8% retracement
- 1.1600–1.1610 – 100-period SMA and upper channel boundary
These technical barriers suggest that unless the euro regains traction above 1.1600, short-term sentiment will likely remain negative.
U.S. Job Cuts Weigh on Market Confidence
The Dollar’s recent rebound follows a volatile week marked by weak U.S. labor data. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that over 150,000 job cuts occurred in October, the largest monthly reduction in more than two decades.
Key details show that:
- Tech firms, retailers, and service providers accounted for the majority of cuts.
- The scale of layoffs has reignited concerns about a possible slowdown in employment growth.
While Thursday’s data initially pressured the Dollar lower, renewed buying emerged on Friday as investors sought safety in U.S. assets amid global equity weakness.
With the official nonfarm payrolls report delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, traders are turning to alternative indicators for labor market guidance.
Sentiment Data May Shape Next Move
Later in the session, focus shifts to the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. Economists expect a modest decline, but any major deterioration could challenge the Dollar’s rebound. Conversely, stronger sentiment and higher one-year inflation expectations could reinforce Dollar strength heading into the weekend.
In short, EUR/USD remains vulnerable under 1.1550, with near-term direction likely determined by upcoming U.S. data. If risk aversion persists and sentiment stabilizes, the pair could retest the 1.1450–1.1425 zone before a possible rebound attempt next week.
