European equities opened the week at fresh highs, driven by a sharp rally in defence stocks after U.S. military action in Venezuela injected new geopolitical uncertainty into global markets. The move snapped the holiday lull and underscored investor conviction that defence spending in Europe will remain structurally elevated, regardless of shifting diplomatic signals elsewhere.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index climbed as much as 0.6% to 599.65, marking a new all-time high. Defence shares outperformed decisively, with the sector index jumping 3.3%, its strongest level in nearly three months. Gains were broad-based, reflecting renewed demand for industries seen as beneficiaries of prolonged security risks.
Defence Shares Power the Rally
Defence stocks rebounded after recent weakness tied to speculation over a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Monday’s gains suggest investors are again prioritising long-term spending trends over near-term political headlines.
Germany’s benchmark index also reached a record, rising about 1%, with Rheinmetall surging 7% to lead the advance. Analysts said European governments remain committed to multi-year defence procurement plans, providing earnings visibility even if geopolitical tensions fluctuate.
Technology and basic resources added momentum to the rally, gaining 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy stocks slipped 0.2%, reflecting subdued oil prices and confidence that Venezuelan supply disruptions will not materially tighten global markets in the near term.
Key market drivers on Monday included:
- Strong rotation into defence and aerospace stocks
- Renewed risk hedging after U.S. action in Venezuela
- Resilient sentiment despite softer oil prices
- Broad participation beyond a single sector
Landon Derentz of the Atlantic Council noted that even under optimistic scenarios, Venezuela’s oil industry would take years to recover, limiting any immediate impact on global energy balances.
Central Banks Remain in Focus
Beyond geopolitics, investors are closely tracking central-bank signals for guidance on interest-rate cuts in 2026. Markets are increasingly sensitive to incoming economic data as policymakers balance cooling inflation against uneven growth.
Goldman Sachs said the euro area economy is positioned for a cyclical improvement in 2026 after a sluggish 2025. However, the bank cautioned that additional rate cuts would require a clear trigger, such as a sharper slowdown in activity or inflation undershooting expectations.
That outlook helped support equities sensitive to growth expectations, including industrials and technology.
Miners and Tech Add to Gains
Mining stocks also benefited from rising copper prices, with Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American all advancing as demand expectations improved. Copper’s move reinforced optimism around electrification and infrastructure spending.
In technology, ASML climbed 3.2% after Bernstein upgraded the stock to “outperform” and raised its price target to €1,300 from €800, citing improved visibility in advanced chipmaking demand.
Together, the moves highlight a market balancing geopolitical risk, monetary policy expectations, and selective growth opportunities—conditions that continue to support European equities near record levels.
