The Japanese yen is hovering near a one-week low against the U.S. dollar, as concerns over Japan’s fiscal health weigh on investor confidence. The USD/JPY pair climbed to around 155.35 on Thursday, its highest level in over a week, before easing slightly to trade just above the 155.00 mark during early European hours. The pair remains up roughly 0.20% on the day.
The move reflects steady demand for the U.S. dollar and growing pressure on Japan’s economic outlook. Currency markets often respond quickly to changes in growth expectations and central bank policy. Right now, the balance favors the dollar.
Dollar Strength Keeps Pressure On Yen
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, reached its highest level in more than a week on Wednesday. The gain followed the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting.
The minutes showed policymakers divided on interest-rate cuts. Some officials said rate reductions may be appropriate if inflation continues to fall. Others warned that easing policy too soon could threaten the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Markets are currently pricing in:
- Three potential 25-basis-point rate cuts this year
- Ongoing policy normalization from the Bank of Japan
- A 2% U.S. inflation target guiding Fed decisions
This divergence matters. If the Fed cuts rates while the Bank of Japan tightens slowly, currency moves can become volatile. For now, the dollar holds the upper hand.
Japan’s Fiscal Concerns Deepen
Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP growth came in weaker than expected, adding pressure on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to consider further economic stimulus. However, the International Monetary Fund cautioned against cutting Japan’s consumption tax, warning that doing so would reduce fiscal space and increase debt risks.
Japan already carries one of the highest public debt burdens among developed economies. Any additional stimulus funded by borrowing could heighten long-term sustainability concerns. These fiscal worries reduce the yen’s appeal, especially during periods when global investors are comfortable taking on risk.
The yen is often viewed as a safe-haven currency, meaning it strengthens during global uncertainty. However, a generally positive risk tone in markets has limited that support.
Key Levels and What’s Next
Technically, USD/JPY remains confined within a weekly range. Resistance near 154.00 had capped gains earlier, but the pair has now pushed toward 155.35. Support remains in the mid-153.00 region.
Traders are watching upcoming inflation data from both Japan and the United States on Friday. These reports could shape expectations for:
- The pace of Fed rate cuts
- The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization
- Short-term direction for USD/JPY
For now, the yen’s weakness reflects a simple equation: slower growth at home, fiscal uncertainty, and a firm U.S. dollar. Until that balance shifts, pressure on the Japanese currency is likely to persist.
