Bitcoin Holds Below $64K as CPI Cuts Rate-Hike Odds to 40%

Bitcoin held steady below $64,000 on Thursday as investors digested an in-line U.S. inflation report that eased near-term fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike but offered little fresh momentum for the token to extend its recovery. The world’s largest cryptocurrency last traded 0.1% higher at $63,866.20 as of 03:09 ET, continuing to consolidate within the $63,000 to $65,000 range that has capped price action for much of the past two months.

Traders Weigh Fed Outlook After U.S. CPI

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% in July from June and 3.4% from a year earlier, both matching economist forecasts and edging slightly lower than June’s 3.5% annual reading. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, also in line with expectations. The data reduced pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, with traders cutting the probability of a September hike to roughly 40% to 44%, down from about 48% to 54% before the report, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said the print neither forces a hawkish repricing nor delivers a clear dovish catalyst after last week’s soft jobs data, largely preserving existing September expectations and shifting focus toward Jackson Hole and the next round of inflation figures. Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the reading a helpful report rather than an all-clear signal, noting the Fed is unlikely to declare victory with inflation still running at 3.4%, well above its 2% target, especially with energy prices up nearly 15% year-over-year. The next major test comes from Thursday’s U.S. producer price report, due later in the day, which will offer an earlier read on inflation pressure building through the supply chain.

Geopolitical Risk and Institutional Flows Add Context

Geopolitical risk continued to weigh on sentiment. U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remained stalled, with Tehran and Washington maintaining competing conditions for reopening the shipping route. Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects this broader loss of momentum, with the token still struggling to clear resistance in the $65,000 to $66,300 zone. Attention is also beginning to shift toward the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month, where policymakers could offer clearer signals on the longer-term rate path.

Institutional demand has provided some offsetting support, though flows remain uneven. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.89 million in net inflows on August 11, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund the only product attracting new capital that session. Separately, derivatives positioning has turned cautious: perpetual futures trading activity sank to a three-year low ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release, while options markets continue pricing a meaningful premium for downside protection, with strikes near $60,000 costing more than equivalent upside strikes near $70,000.

Altcoins Trade Mixed and Range-Bound

Most altcoins traded in narrow ranges Thursday amid the same cautious mood. Ethereum edged up 0.3% to $1,897.22, while XRP fell 0.6% to $1.014. Solana ticked 0.2% higher, Cardano slipped 0.5%, and dogecoin fell 1.3% among meme tokens.

Conclusion

Wednesday’s in-line CPI print removed an immediate inflation-driven selloff risk without providing the clear dovish catalyst bitcoin needed to break decisively above $65,000. With rate-hike odds now split closer to even and derivatives markets still pricing caution, Thursday’s producer price data and the run-up to Jackson Hole are likely to matter more for bitcoin’s next move than the CPI report itself did.