The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September FOMC meeting have cast doubt on the likelihood of another 50 basis points (bps) rate cut at the November meeting. Initially, many market participants were confident that the Fed would cut rates by 50 bps after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks following the September meeting.
However, the latest Fed minutes suggest that the situation is more complex, leaving the market uncertain about the future trajectory of monetary policy.
Fed officials emphasized that they would continue monitoring incoming economic data, including labour market conditions and inflation expectations, before making any decisions. They also reiterated their commitment to adjusting monetary policy as needed to achieve their goal of 2% inflation.
This uncertainty has caused apprehension among investors, putting Bitcoin in a challenging position as it typically benefits from a clear direction in monetary policy.
Impact of Fed Uncertainty on Bitcoin Price
The lack of clarity from the Fed minutes is bearish for Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency market tends to react negatively to uncertainty.
Investors who were previously hopeful for a rate cut in November are now reconsidering their positions, leading to cautious market sentiment. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to play a critical role in shaping expectations ahead of the November FOMC meeting.
The September jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected labour market conditions, has already reduced hopes of a significant rate cut.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to gain traction, with traders hesitant to allocate more capital to the digital asset amid this ambiguous monetary outlook.
Adding to the mix is the looming US presidential election, further contributing to market volatility. The election’s outcome could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, depending on the resulting fiscal and regulatory policies.
Analysts have noted that political uncertainty can lead to increased market turbulence, causing many investors to prioritize capital preservation over risk-taking.
US Elections and Bitcoin’s Price Outlook
The approaching US presidential elections are another key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price action. Historically, markets experience heightened volatility during election periods, and this year appears to be no exception.
According to Bernstein analysts, Bitcoin could see a bullish trend ahead of the elections if former President Donald Trump’s chances improve. Current polymarket odds indicate that Trump has a 53% chance of winning, while Vice President Kamala Harris is 46%.
According to the Bernstein report, expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies could drive Bitcoin to $90,000.
However, history also shows that Bitcoin typically reaches new all-time highs (ATH) post-elections, regardless of who wins. This suggests that the cryptocurrency could surge in price in early 2024, even if short-term uncertainty persists.
Renowned trader Peter Brandt has also weighed in, predicting that Bitcoin could rally to $135,000 by August or September 2025. This aligns with historical patterns, where Bitcoin peaks during market cycles following major economic and political events.
Key Takeaways:
- Uncertainty from Fed Minutes: Doubts about a 50 bps rate cut in November create a bearish outlook for Bitcoin.
- Impact of US Elections: Market volatility is likely as investors weigh the potential outcome of the US presidential elections.
- Long-Term Projections: Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $90,000 if Trump wins and up to $135,000 by mid-2025, driven by market cycle patterns.
Overall, Bitcoin remains in a state of limbo due to the uncertain economic and political landscape. Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data and the November FOMC meeting for further guidance on market direction.
