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Bitcoin Surge Tied to Trump’s Election Odds as MicroStrategy Eyes Breakout

According to analysts at the international research and brokerage business Bernstein, Donald Trump's increasing prospects of winning the 2024 election are driving the bitcoin boom.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Editor at AAFX.IO
Oct 17, 2024
Updated Oct 17, 2024
Bitcoin Surge Tied to Trump’s Election Odds as MicroStrategy Eyes Breakout

According to analysts at the international research and brokerage business Bernstein, Donald Trump’s increasing prospects of winning the 2024 election are driving the bitcoin boom.

They cite MicroStrategy’s stock, which has increased 191% thus far this year, as a major indicator of an impending market breakout.

Trump’s electoral chances are driving a greater cryptocurrency rise and pushing bitcoin higher, as he is currently leading in important swing states.

Bernstein Analysts Expose That Trump’s Election Prospects Are Fueling Bitcoin’s Rise

Analysts at the international research and brokerage firm Bernstein have closely linked the recent surge in bitcoin to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s growing chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. MicroStrategy’s stock (Nasdaq: MSTR) is a key indicator for a possible market breakout.

In a letter addressed to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia stated:

We think the restoration of Bitcoin’s correlation to Trump’s election chances is what’s driving the cryptocurrency’s current surge.

“Despite the bipartisan support for digital assets, the crypto market bid is stronger as Trump’s odds improve on the election prediction markets,” they continued. According to Polymarket, Trump is currently leading in five of the six swing states.


Bernstein also highlighted Microstrategy’s performance, pointing out that its stock outperformed bitcoin in 2024, rising 191% as opposed to 55%. The experts claim that Microstrategy’s calculated use of debt and equity to purchase Bitcoin has been successful. They explained:

Microstrategy capitalized on the lows by issuing equity and convertible debt (almost $2 billion) to buy the Bitcoin dip.

They also made the following statement regarding bitcoin miners: “We expect the pure-play miners to catch up with the AI-focused miners as bitcoin continues to gain strength.”

Sources & Methodology

Primary-source standard: Market-moving facts should link to original data releases, regulator notices, company filings or official project announcements whenever available. Secondary reporting is used for additional context, not as a substitute for original evidence.

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Market information only: This article is for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including possible loss of capital. Verify current prices and terms before making financial decisions.
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Arslan Ali Butt
Arslan Ali Butt is the founder and Lead Market Analyst at AAFX.io, with more than a decade of experience covering forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, equities, and global macroeconomic trends. He holds an MBA in Finance and an MPhil in Behavioral Finance, combining academic research with practical market experience in technical analysis, dealing-desk operations, risk management, market sentiment, and trading psychology. Since 2014, Arslan has produced data-driven market analysis, price forecasts, trading education, and live webinars for international audiences. His research and commentary have been published by FXEmpire, FXLeaders, FXStreet, TradingKey, Cryptonews, KuCoin Learn, InsideBitcoins, Business2Community, ForexCrunch, EconomyWatch, ACY Securities, and FlowBank. Through AAFX.io, he provides independent, transparent, and clearly sourced market news and analysis designed to help readers understand financial markets and make better-informed decisions.
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