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GBP/USD Outlook: Tests 9-Day EMA Resistance Near 1.2950 Amid Bullish Momentum

GBP/USD tests 1.2950 resistance near the 9-day EMA.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Editor at AAFX.IO
Mar 26, 2025
Updated Mar 26, 2025
GBP/USD Outlook: Tests 9-Day EMA Resistance Near 1.2950 Amid Bullish Momentum

The GBP/USD pair is testing a critical resistance level at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2938, as bullish momentum continues to dominate the market. As of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the pair is hovering around 1.2930 after gaining in the previous two sessions. The technical outlook suggests a sustained upward trend, with price action confined within an ascending channel pattern.

  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reinforcing bullish momentum.
  • GBP/USD has dipped below the nine-day EMA, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum.
  • Key support is positioned near the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 1.2840.

Bullish Targets: 1.3014 and 1.3170 in Focus

If GBP/USD successfully rebounds above the nine-day EMA at 1.2938, further gains may be on the horizon. The immediate target for the pair is the four-month high of 1.3014, reached on March 20. A sustained break above this level could drive the price toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 1.3170.

  • A breakout above 1.3014 confirms renewed bullish momentum.
  • The next upside target is 1.3170, aligning with the channel’s upper limit.
  • Market sentiment remains positive amid strong support from technical indicators.

Downside Risks: Key Support Levels to Watch

While the overall trend remains bullish, failure to hold above key levels could shift sentiment. The primary downside support is near 1.2840, the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next significant support emerges at the 50-day EMA around 1.2739. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward the two-month low of 1.2249, recorded on February 3.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
  • Key support at 1.2840, aligning with the ascending channel.
  • Additional support at 1.2739 (50-day EMA), crucial for maintaining the medium-term trend.
  • A drop below 1.2249 would indicate a broader bearish reversal.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

The GBP/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish, with traders closely monitoring resistance levels and economic data for further direction. As the pair consolidates near 1.2950, upcoming macroeconomic events, including central bank commentary and U.S. economic releases, may drive volatility. A clear break above resistance or below support will define the next major trend move.

Sources & Methodology

Primary-source standard: Market-moving facts should link to original data releases, regulator notices, company filings or official project announcements whenever available. Secondary reporting is used for additional context, not as a substitute for original evidence.

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Market information only: This article is for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including possible loss of capital. Verify current prices and terms before making financial decisions.
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Arslan Ali Butt
Arslan Ali Butt is the founder and Lead Market Analyst at AAFX.io, with more than a decade of experience covering forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, equities, and global macroeconomic trends. He holds an MBA in Finance and an MPhil in Behavioral Finance, combining academic research with practical market experience in technical analysis, dealing-desk operations, risk management, market sentiment, and trading psychology. Since 2014, Arslan has produced data-driven market analysis, price forecasts, trading education, and live webinars for international audiences. His research and commentary have been published by FXEmpire, FXLeaders, FXStreet, TradingKey, Cryptonews, KuCoin Learn, InsideBitcoins, Business2Community, ForexCrunch, EconomyWatch, ACY Securities, and FlowBank. Through AAFX.io, he provides independent, transparent, and clearly sourced market news and analysis designed to help readers understand financial markets and make better-informed decisions.
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