The Japanese Yen (JPY) is regaining strength at the start of the week, climbing back near the upper end of its intraday range against the US Dollar (USD). As global investors shift into safe-haven assets, the Yen has drawn fresh demand amid escalating fears of a deepening trade war and a looming recession.
US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies—imposing a 10% baseline on imports—have triggered strong retaliation from major trade partners, including China, Canada, and the European Union. This heightened geopolitical unease has led to a broad sell-off in global equity markets.
The Japanese Yen has historically benefited from such risk-off sentiment, and the current environment is no exception. Additionally, ongoing inflationary trends in Japan are keeping the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025. Combined with weakening US economic indicators, these factors are putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair, which has slipped near the 145.00 psychological threshold.
Fed Outlook Softens as Bond Yields Slide
The US Dollar’s recent performance has been underwhelming, weighed down by both macroeconomic uncertainty and speculation that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy sooner than expected. Despite a stronger-than-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls report—showing 228,000 jobs added in March—the Fed remains cautious.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs could spark unexpected inflationary pressures, but noted that any policy shift will depend on sustained economic data. Markets, however, are already pricing in at least four rate cuts by year-end.
This dovish outlook, coupled with falling bond yields—10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4.0%—has reduced the Dollar’s appeal and given Yen bulls the upper hand.
Key Market Movements:
- USD/JPY trading near 145.00 support
- US 10-year bond yields fall below 4.0%
- Global equities trend lower on recession fears
- BoJ holds steady on regional economic outlook
USD/JPY Chart Signals Bearish Momentum
Technically, the USD/JPY pair broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its September-March rally, signaling further downside risk. Daily oscillators remain in negative territory but not yet oversold, indicating additional room for bearish movement.
Support Levels to Watch:
- 146.00
- 145.45
- 144.80
- 144.55
- 144.00
On the upside, any bounce toward 147.00 or beyond may face resistance at 147.70 and 148.00, likely viewed as selling opportunities by short-term traders.
With sentiment shifting and fundamentals aligning against the Dollar, the Yen appears poised to extend gains—especially if the Fed confirms a pivot toward easing in the coming months.
