According to analysts at Bernstein, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election may heavily influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Should Donald Trump win the election, Bernstein predicts Bitcoin price could surge to a range between $80,000 and $90,000 by the end of Q4.
Conversely, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could see Bitcoin dip back to the $30,000 to $40,000 range, breaking its current support around $50,000.
This stark contrast underscores the growing politicization of the crypto industry, with regulatory environments differing significantly between the two candidates.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin Price Prediction: Trump victory could push BTC to $80,000-$90,000, while a Harris win may see prices fall to $30,000-$40,000.
- Regulatory Impact: A pro-crypto regulatory environment could encourage institutional investment and spur further innovation in the crypto sector.
- Current Price Outlook: Bitcoin is trading at $57,294 with resistance at $58,491. A break above this could lead to $60,986, while failure to do so may result in a pullback to $54,852.
Why Bitcoin is a “Trump Trade”
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia highlight that Trump’s past rhetoric on crypto has been favorable. Trump has spoken openly about making the U.S. the “Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world,” promising policies to boost Bitcoin mining and appoint crypto-friendly regulators, including a pro-Bitcoin SEC chair.
This support contrasts with Harris’ more neutral stance, as her campaign has yet to address cryptocurrency directly in any speeches or policy outlines.
Crypto leaders have engaged both campaigns, but according to Bernstein, the industry has received more support from Trump. This difference in approach, along with recent high-profile crackdowns on platforms like Coinbase and Uniswap, has made regulatory clarity a key factor in determining crypto’s future.
The Role of Regulation and Institutional Flows
Bernstein points to the increasing importance of a favorable regulatory environment. The analysts argue that a clear, supportive crypto policy could encourage institutional participation, making digital assets more competitive with traditional investments. The combination of a pro-crypto presidency and better regulatory frameworks could remove risk barriers and lead to significant inflows of capital into the Bitcoin market.
The crypto market has already faced significant regulatory hurdles in the U.S., with actions against fraudulent platforms like FTX and Luna undermining public trust. However, the analysts believe that a shift in political leadership could spur innovation and make the U.S. a global leader in the crypto space.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook: Will $200,000 Become a Reality?
Bernstein’s long-term Bitcoin price prediction is bullish regardless of the political outcome. The firm previously set a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033.
However, the analysts note that achieving these lofty targets will require favorable market conditions, including increased institutional investment, improved regulation, and technological advancements in the crypto ecosystem.
In the short term, Bernstein’s forecast hinges on the results of the 2024 U.S. election. The decentralized predictions platform Polymarket currently shows Trump leading Harris by 52% to 47%, with the race tight in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
Should Trump secure the presidency, Bitcoin could see a significant bull run, driven by positive sentiment and pro-crypto policies.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Performance and Technical Outlook
As of the latest market analysis, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at $57,294, showing strong bullish momentum after testing support at $53,200. The 4-hour chart indicates a breakout above the key resistance level of $56,000, with the next major resistance at $58,491. Should Bitcoin breach this level, the price could target $60,986 in the coming days.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is showing a bullish crossover, signaling potential for further upward movement. The 50-EMA stands at $56,387, which could act as near-term support, while additional support is at $54,852.
Traders should keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s performance above $58,491. A failure to break this resistance could lead to a short-term pullback, with potential downside targets at $56,126 and $54,852.
Bitcoin’s future hangs in the balance, with the U.S. election potentially setting the stage for dramatic shifts in the crypto market. Whether BTC will soar to new heights or face a correction will depend largely on the political landscape in the coming months.
