Bitcoin CAGR to Fall Below 10% by 2035, Says Analyst Citing $45B ETF Inflows

Willy Woo, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, is predicting a dramatic decline in Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the next decade. Once surging at triple-digit annual rates, Woo now expects Bitcoin’s CAGR to drop below 10%, aligning with global monetary and economic growth trends.

The decline in growth expectations follows Bitcoin’s maturation as a macro asset, Woo argues. “Bitcoin is no longer in its early exponential phase,” he said, pointing to how institutionalization and regulatory integration have changed the asset’s growth trajectory.

Key shift points include:

• 2020: Institutional adoption begins.
• 2024: Spot Bitcoin ETFs launch, driving massive inflows.
• $45B+: Assets under management in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), now the top crypto ETF.

These developments, while reinforcing Bitcoin’s legitimacy, also dampen its explosive upside. Woo explains that Bitcoin is becoming the first major global macro asset in over 150 years, absorbing capital gradually until reaching a new equilibrium.

His forecast:

• Future CAGR: ~8%
  • Global GDP Growth: ~3%
  • Monetary Expansion: ~5%

Institutional Demand Alters BTC Dynamics

Bitcoin’s adoption curve is flattening as corporate treasuries, pension funds, and sovereign entities increase their stakes. The result: a move from speculative volatility to steady accumulation.

Woo compares the transition to that of gold’s stabilization post-Bretton Woods. BTC’s CAGR, once exceeding 100% pre-2017, began moderating after 2020’s corporate participation and the 2024 ETF boom.

• BTC ETF Inflows (2024): Over $45B
• Top Institutional Holders: BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest
• BTC-to-Gold Ratio: Steady at ~32x since 2021

This ratio’s stability indicates that Bitcoin, while gaining traction, is increasingly moving in line with traditional macro assets like gold.

Macroeconomic Volatility Supports BTC

Despite reduced CAGR expectations, Bitcoin remains a favored hedge during economic instability. Recent events highlight this strength.

• Moody’s Downgrade: U.S. credit rating lowered due to surging debt and economic fragility.
• BTC Price Reaction: Rallied to ~$103,500, just 4% shy of all-time highs.
• Analyst Views:
  • Kobeissi Letter: “Instability is Bitcoin’s best friend.”
  • Mike McGlone (Bloomberg): BTC-gold dynamics crucial for market signals.

Although BTC struggles to break $105K, analysts note its resilience in the face of geopolitical and monetary headwinds. The weakening U.S. dollar and uncertain fiscal outlook continue to enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign store of value.