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Bitcoin Drops 4% to $112.9K as Fed Rate-Cut Odds Shrink Before Powell Talk

Bitcoin drops 4% to $112.9K as Fed rate-cut odds shrink; Powell’s Jackson Hole speech looms as crypto markets post weekly declines.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Editor at AAFX.IO
Aug 22, 2025
Updated Aug 22, 2025
Bitcoin Drops 4% to $112.9K as Fed Rate-Cut Odds Shrink Before Powell Talk

Bitcoin prices slid Friday, adding to steep declines this week as investors grew cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 0.9% to $112,943.40 by 01:29 ET (05:29 GMT), leaving it down nearly 4% for the week.

Profit-taking after August’s record highs compounded the decline, while diminishing expectations for a September interest rate cut further pressured sentiment. Broader crypto markets also weakened, signaling that investor appetite for speculative assets remains fragile.

China’s reported consideration of state-backed, yuan-denominated stablecoins provided little support, as the country maintains a ban on most cryptocurrency trading since 2021.

Fed Uncertainty Weighs on Markets

The Federal Reserve’s trajectory on interest rates remains the focal point for digital asset markets. Minutes from the central bank’s late-July meeting showed broad support for holding rates steady, tempering bets on imminent easing.

CME FedWatch data revealed futures traders now see a 73.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September—down sharply from more than 90% last week. A stronger-than-expected August Purchasing Managers Index reinforced perceptions that the U.S. economy retains resilience, further reducing the likelihood of near-term cuts.

Powell has thus far avoided firm commitments on monetary policy, pointing to uncertainty around the inflationary effects of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. For cryptocurrencies, which thrive in looser liquidity conditions, the prospect of “higher-for-longer” rates poses a significant headwind.

Key factors driving sentiment include:

  • Dwindling Rate-Cut Odds: September cut odds fall to 73.1% from 90%+ last week.
  • Economic Resilience: U.S. PMI data showed stronger-than-expected growth.
  • Policy Uncertainty: Powell’s speech seen as pivotal for near-term direction.
Bitcoin Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Altcoins Mirror Bitcoin’s Decline

The weakness extended across the crypto complex. Ethereum, the second-largest token, dropped 0.9% to $4,277.18 and is down 3.2% for the week. XRP slid 2.2%, bringing weekly losses to 7.6%. Cardano and Solana each fell 2.5% Friday, both lower by more than 7% for the week.

Meme-inspired coins also saw outsized losses: Dogecoin slipped 2.8%, while $TRUMP tumbled 4.6%. The declines underscored the sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and its reliance on liquidity flows.

After rallying sharply in 2024 as the Fed pivoted toward easing, cryptocurrencies now face renewed pressure. If Powell signals caution or maintains hawkish language, digital assets could see further downside before stabilizing.

Sources & Methodology

Primary-source standard: Market-moving facts should link to original data releases, regulator notices, company filings or official project announcements whenever available. Secondary reporting is used for additional context, not as a substitute for original evidence.

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Market information only: This article is for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including possible loss of capital. Verify current prices and terms before making financial decisions.
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Arslan Ali Butt
Arslan Ali Butt is the founder and Lead Market Analyst at AAFX.io, with more than a decade of experience covering forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, equities, and global macroeconomic trends. He holds an MBA in Finance and an MPhil in Behavioral Finance, combining academic research with practical market experience in technical analysis, dealing-desk operations, risk management, market sentiment, and trading psychology. Since 2014, Arslan has produced data-driven market analysis, price forecasts, trading education, and live webinars for international audiences. His research and commentary have been published by FXEmpire, FXLeaders, FXStreet, TradingKey, Cryptonews, KuCoin Learn, InsideBitcoins, Business2Community, ForexCrunch, EconomyWatch, ACY Securities, and FlowBank. Through AAFX.io, he provides independent, transparent, and clearly sourced market news and analysis designed to help readers understand financial markets and make better-informed decisions.
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