The EUR/USD pair remains near 1.09, supported by a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report for February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) for both headline and core measures, missing forecasts and easing concerns about prolonged inflationary pressures.
Key takeaways from the latest inflation data:
- Core services inflation cooled after a temporary uptick in January.
- Core goods and healthcare costs remained elevated, but overall inflation momentum is easing.
- The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance, reinforcing expectations for a softer monetary policy.
While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has not signaled an imminent rate cut, the latest data supports a dovish narrative, keeping pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Euro Gains Limited as ECB’s Lagarde Stays Cautious
Despite optimism surrounding EUR/USD, markets were left wanting more after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech at the ECB Watchers conference. Investors had hoped for clarity on the April policy meeting, but Lagarde refrained from offering strong signals.
The euro’s upside remains capped by:
- Lack of clear ECB policy direction, with rate decisions still uncertain.
- Ongoing economic headwinds in the Eurozone, including weak manufacturing data.
- Market skepticism about the sustainability of recent gains.
With no major ECB policy shifts on the horizon, EUR/USD will likely continue consolidating near current levels in the near term.
Russia Truce Talks Could Push EUR/USD Higher
One potential catalyst for a EUR/USD breakout is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine truce negotiations. Danske Bank analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson suggest that if Russia agrees to peace terms, the euro could see another leg higher as geopolitical risks ease.
However, risks remain:
- Markets have already priced in optimism, meaning a smaller-than-expected impact if a deal materializes.
- U.S. economic pessimism may be overstated, increasing the risk of a USD rebound.
- Upcoming U.S. data, including Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims, will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.
While the EUR/USD outlook remains bullish, investors should monitor upcoming economic releases and geopolitical developments, as any deviation from expectations could trigger a swift reversal.
