The USD/JPY pair hovered just under 157.00 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, consolidating after its latest upward push. The move came as mounting fiscal concerns in Japan and persistent uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next rate decision continued to weigh on the Yen. Ahead of key U.S. data—including ADP Employment Change, Retail Sales, and Producer Price Index reports—traders remained cautious but supportive of the Dollar.
By midday in Europe, the U.S. Dollar had recovered part of its Friday decline, trading around 155.85, up from the earlier low of 156.20. Meanwhile, the Yen extended its multi-week slide, having weakened roughly 7% since early October. The decline reflects ongoing market unease about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal plans and the long-term impact of aggressive stimulus.
Japan’s ¥21T Package Sparks Fiscal Debate
Investor anxiety deepened after Japan’s cabinet approved a ¥21 trillion (USD 135 billion) stimulus package on Friday. While aimed at supporting growth, the plan reignited concerns about the country’s already fragile public finances. Japan maintains one of the world’s largest debt-to-GDP ratios, and markets fear an additional expansion in spending could further strain fiscal stability.
Still, USD/JPY briefly retreated late last week after Finance Minister Yoko Takayama issued one of the clearest FX warnings of the year. She reiterated concerns over “excessive volatility” and “speculative moves,” adding that authorities stand ready to take appropriate action—language broadly interpreted as a near-term intervention threat.
Key fiscal developments:
- Japan announces ¥21T stimulus, raising debt concerns
- Yen down 7% since early October
- Finance Ministry signals increased intervention readiness
BoJ Intervention Speculation Builds
Markets expect any BoJ intervention to come during periods of reduced liquidity, making the upcoming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday a potential window. Traders remained wary but continued selling the Yen early in the week, betting that authorities may wait before stepping in.
The Dollar’s broader tone stayed soft, pressured by expectations of Federal Reserve easing. New York Fed President John Williams reinforced those expectations on Friday, saying the central bank still has room to cut rates without derailing its inflation goals. His comments strengthened market conviction in a 25-basis-point Fed cut in December, weighing on the Dollar and complicating the USD/JPY outlook.
As U.S. economic data approaches and Japanese officials intensify their signals, USD/JPY remains trapped in a tug-of-war between fiscal anxiety, intervention risk, and shifting global monetary expectations.
