The USD/JPY pair maintained gains around 153.90, close to its eight-month peak of 154.49 hit on November 4, as the Japanese Yen weakened amid an uncertain Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook.
Recent resistance near mid-154.00s and the overnight breakdown below 153.30-153.25 suggest further depreciation could be on the horizon. Technical indicators show support likely near 152.15-152.10, while a drop below 152.00 could trigger fresh bearish momentum. Conversely, reclaiming 153.25-153.30 may pave the way for retesting 154.45, with potential upside toward 155.00-156.00 psychological levels.
BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa emphasized caution, noting policy decisions will consider global trade uncertainties. She expects Japanese corporate profits to recover as overseas economies rebound and domestic wages strengthen, gradually supporting the BoJ’s 2% inflation target.
Japanese Data and Stimulus Plan in Focus
Domestic indicators added to market caution. September household spending rose 1.8% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.5%, with month-on-month spending declining 0.7%, suggesting cooling consumption.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly finalizing a $65 billion stimulus package to bolster growth and curb inflation, which would be funded through a supplementary budget by late November.
Key BoJ insights include:
- Minutes from the September 18-19 meeting highlighted a cautious rate-hike path amid inflation and trade risks.
- Policymakers noted the potential to resume rate increases, as 2% price stability is approaching.
- JPY long positions have shrunk amid macro policy speculation, per top official Atsushi Mimura.
These developments continue to weigh on the Yen while providing a floor for USD/JPY gains.
US Dollar Support from Political and Fed Factors
The US Dollar remains steady as investors monitor the ongoing government shutdown. The Senate advanced a 60-40 vote on a funding bill, including enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, but House and presidential approval are still required.
Traders are also adjusting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now seeing a 69% probability of a December reduction, after hawkish FOMC comments. Market attention is turning to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, delayed by the shutdown, which may influence short-term USD movements.
Market highlights:
- USD/JPY consolidates near 154.00 despite recent Yen weakness.
- Stimulus and spending data support cautious optimism for the Yen.
- Fed signals and US shutdown developments anchor dollar strength.
The interplay of BoJ policy uncertainty, domestic stimulus, and US fiscal and monetary developments is likely to drive USD/JPY trading near key technical levels in the coming days.
