Silver prices steadied near multi-year highs on Thursday, buoyed by safe-haven flows and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The metal, viewed as both a hedge and an industrial commodity, extended gains after the U.S. government shutdown forced thousands of federal workers off the job.
- Spot silver (XAG/USD): $47.50/oz
- Weekly high: $47.83/oz, a 14-year peak
- Driver: U.S. political gridlock, labor market concerns
The Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended operations this week, delaying the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls report. With official data unavailable, investors shifted focus to private readings. The ADP report showed private payrolls falling 32,000 in September, well below expectations of a 50,000 increase, while annual wage growth slowed to 4.5%.
Fed Rate Cuts Back in Focus
The latest labor figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will extend its rate-cutting cycle. Markets now see a 99% probability of a rate cut in October and an 87% chance of another move in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
For silver, which does not bear interest, lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the asset, often enhancing its appeal during periods of policy easing.
Other contributing factors include:
- Global deficit risk: The Silver Institute projects demand will outstrip supply by 100 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive annual shortfall.
- Rising Indian imports: Silver inflows doubled in September as jewelers and banks stockpiled ahead of festival season and potential tax increases.
- Investor positioning: Growing preference for metals as a hedge against both inflation uncertainty and political risk.
Supply and Demand Outlook
Market analysts highlight that silver’s dual role—as a safe-haven asset and a key input in industrial applications—has magnified its resilience. Demand for solar panels, electronics, and medical devices continues to expand, even as investment-driven flows push the price higher.
Meanwhile, constrained mine output remains a limiting factor. Production is projected at 844 million ounces in 2025, far below global demand estimates. With imports climbing in major consuming nations, analysts expect the market deficit to continue tightening.
For now, silver’s momentum reflects a confluence of weaker U.S. labor market signals, heightened political risk, and long-term supply constraints. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, which may determine whether silver sustains its surge above $47.50 or consolidates below recent highs.
