Crude oil prices were largely flat in Friday’s trading, but both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained on course for a modest 1% weekly gain, supported by easing geopolitical tensions even as fresh supply risks loom.
Brent crude rose 0.1% to $64.58 a barrel by 0953 GMT, while WTI added 0.03% to $61.64. This stability follows Thursday’s sharp 2% slide driven by progress on a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement, which could flood the market with additional barrels.
Harry Tchiliguirian of Onyx Capital Group noted the fragile balance, saying the oil market’s upward momentum was constrained as the initial lift from the U.S.-China trade détente begins to wane. OPEC+ continues to accelerate the rollback of voluntary production cuts, while Iranian flows—largely headed to China—remain steady amid ongoing negotiations.
An Iranian nuclear deal could unlock up to 400,000 barrels per day, according to ING analysts, adding to global supply already projected to outpace demand in 2025.
Trade Deal Eases Demand Fears
Market sentiment saw an early-week lift after Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade dispute, during which both sides committed to reduce tariffs. As the world’s two largest oil-consuming nations, the agreement temporarily allayed fears of a demand collapse.
However, BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, warned in a research note that the truce is fragile. The lack of clarity on longer-term trade policies could cap oil’s upside, keeping markets volatile.
Key market dynamics:
- Brent and WTI on track for 1% weekly rise
- 90-day U.S.-China trade pause supports risk sentiment
- Iranian nuclear talks could flood the market with more supply
- OPEC+ continues to unwind output cuts
Despite the near-term boost, analysts remain cautious. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 supply growth forecast by 380,000 barrels per day, overshadowing a minor 20,000 bpd increase in global demand expectations.
Fed Rate Speculation in Focus
Investor attention also shifted to the Federal Reserve’s potential rate path, with hopes that lower borrowing costs could stimulate economic activity and, by extension, energy demand.
While the market remains balanced for now, headwinds from rising supply, uncertain trade policies, and macroeconomic risks continue to temper bullish sentiment.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor:
- Progress on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
- OPEC+ production strategies
- Federal Reserve policy signals
- Key global economic data releases
