Oil Nears $90 as Hormuz Traffic Falls 84% Amid U.S.-Iran Standoff

Oil nears $90 as Hormuz shipping falls 84%, U.S.-Iran talks stall and attacks on ADNOC vessels raise global crude supply risks.

Oil prices moved higher on Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a sharp decline in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about crude supply. Brent crude rose as much as 1% to $89.40 a barrel before trading at $89.20, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 44 cents to $82.83. Both benchmarks advanced more than 5% last week after attacks involving Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) vessels and a Saudi Aramco refinery.

Hormuz Traffic Falls 84%

Kpler ship-tracking data showed only five commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with none recorded on Sunday. That compares with 31 commodity-vessel transits during the previous weekend, an 84% decline. The figures exclude some vessels that may have switched off their tracking systems, so the data does not represent every movement through the waterway.

The slowdown is significant because Hormuz historically carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began in February, more than 130 ships a day were recorded crossing the strait. Current traffic is far below those levels, increasing the risk that prolonged restrictions could affect crude deliveries, freight costs and refined-fuel markets.

Recent incidents have added to the pressure. The UAE accused Iran of attacking a third ADNOC-operated vessel while it was transiting the strait on Friday. The allegation followed attacks involving two other ADNOC vessels earlier in the week. No injuries were reported in the Friday incident, according to the UAE.

• Brent: as high as $89.40 a barrel
• WTI: $82.83 a barrel
• Saturday crossings: 5 vessels
• Previous weekend: 31 vessels

U.S.-Iran Talks Remain Unresolved

Diplomatic uncertainty is keeping the supply risk elevated. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not decided whether to resume negotiations with Washington. At the same time, President Donald Trump told Americans to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices while the conflict continues.

The dispute has created a difficult setup for oil traders. A diplomatic agreement could allow shipping activity to recover and remove part of the geopolitical premium from crude prices. Continued attacks or tighter restrictions on the strait would have the opposite effect by making physical supply more difficult and expensive to move.

The market is also watching the availability of alternative routes and cargoes. Some vessels have continued using Iranian-controlled routes, while others appear to have reduced or altered their movements. Kpler data also indicates that shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has weakened, adding another layer of pressure on regional energy logistics.

Oil Market Faces a Supply Test

The immediate price response remains measured despite the scale of the shipping disruption. Brent is approaching $90, but analysts say a larger and sustained rally would likely require evidence that crude production, exports or inventories are being materially affected.

For now, the key variables are clear: Hormuz traffic, attacks on energy infrastructure and the direction of U.S.-Iran diplomacy. If shipping remains depressed for an extended period, the risk shifts from a temporary transportation disruption to a broader supply problem. A credible agreement that restores navigation would reduce that risk quickly.

Until then, crude prices are likely to remain sensitive to every vessel movement and diplomatic development. The sharp drop in Hormuz traffic has already changed the market’s supply-risk calculation, putting the $90 Brent level firmly within reach.