BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, long known for his ultra-bullish Bitcoin outlooks, has retreated from his earlier target of $250,000 by the end of 2025. In a recent CNBC interview, Lee said he still expects Bitcoin to trade above $100,000, yet described any return to its October peak of $125,100 as only a “maybe.” It marks the first visible softening of a projection he repeatedly defended throughout 2024 and early October.
Lee’s earlier optimism stood in stark contrast to other major industry voices. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned in October that “crazy stuff” would need to occur for Bitcoin to reach the quarter-million mark on schedule. The recalibration suggests rising macro pressure—and volatile capital flows—are reshaping expectations across the sector.
Why Bitcoin’s Best Gains Happen in 10 Days
Despite moderating his target, Lee insists that Bitcoin’s strongest performance windows still lie ahead. With 35 days remaining in 2025, he argued that the asset is known for generating the majority of its annual upside during a very narrow trading window.
This pattern is widely documented. Data shared by Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley earlier in the year highlighted the phenomenon:
- Bitcoin’s top 10 trading days in 2024 delivered +52% combined returns.
- The remaining 355 days averaged –15%—effectively erasing gains for inactive investors.
Bitcoin’s current downtrend began after a $19 billion crypto-wide liquidation triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The asset slid below $90,000 for six straight sessions before reclaiming that level mid-week, despite November historically being Bitcoin’s strongest month since 2013.
Economist Timothy Peterson added this week that Bitcoin may have already found its cycle bottom—or could form one imminently.
A Track Record of Hits and Misses
Lee’s predictive history is mixed, underscoring the challenge of long-range Bitcoin forecasting. In 2018, he projected Bitcoin would hit $125,000 by 2022—a milestone it did not reach until October 2024. Yet he has also issued forecasts that landed precisely:
- In 2017, he estimated Bitcoin could rise to $20,000 by 2022—the asset touched that mark in December 2020.
- His upper-range outlook of $55,000 for the same period proved accurate as Bitcoin hit that level in March 2021.
As 2025 approaches, Lee’s tempered stance reflects both caution and conviction: Bitcoin may still deliver significant upside—but its path will be narrow, volatile, and dominated by a handful of decisive trading days.
