USD/CAD Poised to Decline to 1.41 as Markets Eye U.S. Tariff Moves

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The central bank maintained a cautious tone, citing ongoing concerns over trade tensions with the U.S. and their impact on economic growth.

Despite the rate cut, the market reaction was muted as investors had already priced in the move. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized the challenges posed by trade disputes, warning that monetary policy alone cannot counteract the effects of a prolonged trade war.

Additionally, BoC survey data revealed that:

• Business and consumer confidence has weakened due to tariff uncertainty.
• Investment outlooks remain cautious, with firms hesitant to commit capital.
• Inflation expectations are stabilizing, giving the BoC room for further policy adjustments.

U.S. Tariff Policy May Support CAD

A potential easing of U.S. tariffs on Canada could provide much-needed support for the Canadian dollar (CAD). The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has weighed on investor sentiment, but analysts at Danske Bank suggest a less aggressive U.S. stance could strengthen CAD.

Key market considerations:

• Tariff reductions would boost Canadian exports, easing pressure on domestic industries.
• USD/CAD remains sensitive to U.S. economic shifts, with further Federal Reserve rate cuts likely to weaken the U.S. dollar.
• Canada’s economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace, keeping the BoC cautious but not overly dovish.

Governor Macklem stressed that the severity of U.S. tariffs on Canada depends on both their magnitude and duration. While no immediate policy shifts have been confirmed, any relaxation of trade restrictions could be a bullish signal for CAD.

USD/CAD Outlook: Decline to 1.41 Expected

Danske Bank analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson maintain a bearish short-term outlook for USD/CAD, forecasting a drop toward 1.41. This expectation is based on:

• CAD positioning remaining stretched, suggesting room for further appreciation.
• Ongoing USD weakness, driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Positive trade developments, which could ease pressure on the Canadian economy.

Given the current macroeconomic landscape, USD/CAD is likely to trend lower, though risks remain tied to U.S. policy decisions. Traders and investors will closely monitor upcoming trade negotiations and Fed signals for further direction.