The Japanese yen advanced sharply against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, with USD/JPY slipping to 144.60, its lowest level in nearly two weeks. The move follows fresh speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again in 2025, contrasting with a weakening outlook for the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.
BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reinforced expectations for tighter policy, stating that inflation could re-accelerate and justify further hikes. The BoJ’s recent summary of opinions also reflected a growing willingness among policymakers to continue normalizing rates, should Japan’s price and growth trajectory remain intact.
The dollar, meanwhile, remained on the defensive amid soft U.S. inflation data and signals from Fed officials advocating a cautious approach to easing. Traders now price in two rate cuts by year-end, despite Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warning against prematurely interpreting transitory inflation as sustainable.
Safe-Haven Flows Stay Mixed
Despite geopolitical instability, global risk sentiment remained resilient. Equities held steady following last week’s Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt to Aa1, while China-U.S. tariff negotiations sparked cautious optimism.
That said, the yen’s typical role as a haven was tempered:
- Israel escalated its ground campaign in Gaza, issuing evacuation orders in Khan Yunis.
- Trump claimed Russia and Ukraine agreed to ceasefire talks, though these remain unconfirmed.
- Japan’s Finance Minister is set to discuss FX policy with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7, though Bessent may not attend.
These conflicting narratives complicate the outlook for further JPY gains, particularly if risk appetite persists across equity markets.
Technicals Suggest Further Downside for USD/JPY
Technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY remains vulnerable to deeper losses. The pair has decisively broken below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April–May rally.
Key technical highlights:
- Resistance near 146.00 could limit any recovery; a break above may target 146.60–147.00.
- Support lies at 144.65, followed by a major confluence at 144.30–144.25 (50% Fib + 200-period SMA).
- A breach of 144.00 could push the pair toward 143.75–143.70.
With sentiment tilted toward yen strength and the dollar facing macro headwinds, the pair’s path of least resistance remains lower, barring a surprise rebound in U.S. yields or economic data.
