West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose to a two-week high of $63.50 during Friday’s Asian trading session. The surge came amid rising expectations of a U.S.-EU trade agreement and renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran’s oil exports.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni fueled speculation about progress in resolving long-standing trade frictions with Europe. Trump commented that making a deal with Europe should be easy, reinforcing investor hopes for an eventual accord.
Meanwhile, fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports reignited global supply concerns. The sanctions, part of the Trump-era “maximum pressure” strategy, aim to limit Tehran’s oil revenue channels. This added a bullish undertone to an already tight market.
Supply Risks Drive Bullish Sentiment
The upward momentum in WTI was further supported by tightening supply fundamentals. New U.S. measures signal tougher enforcement on Iranian oil shipments, threatening to reduce global output at a time when inventories remain sensitive.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA):
- Crude inventories rose by 515,000 barrels for the week ending April 11.
- This compares with a 2.553 million barrel build the week prior.
- Market expectations hovered around a 400,000-barrel increase.
These figures suggest a slower pace of stockpile growth, contributing to upward pressure on prices.
In addition, OPEC+ reassured markets that it retains flexibility in adjusting production. Analysts from Gelber and Associates noted, “OPEC+ remains in control and can cut output if market conditions warrant.”
Geopolitics and Trade Bolster Oil Outlook
Market dynamics are increasingly being shaped by a blend of policy and politics:
- U.S.-EU Trade Talks: The Trump-Meloni meeting hinted at smoother transatlantic relations, bolstering economic sentiment.
- Iran Sanctions: Renewed penalties reinforce supply fears, particularly in Asia and Europe, key Iranian oil markets.
- OPEC+ Signals: Strategic flexibility provides a safety net against oversupply risks.
- Light Trading Volume: Good Friday holidays muted trading activity, making price movements more reactive to headlines.
These combined factors suggest that crude prices may remain supported in the near term, especially if diplomatic breakthroughs or geopolitical flare-ups continue to dominate headlines.
