Crypto analyst Samson Mow has stirred conversation by stating that XRP would need to be priced at $5,800 to offer the same investment value as Bitcoin. Mow’s analysis, shared via social media platform X, hinges on dividing Ripple’s current market capitalization by Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins.
His reasoning? If you compare Bitcoin’s value by unit to that of XRP, the latter is severely undervalued—only if you ignore circulating supply. Mow argues that buying XRP at its current value—just over $2—yields less proportional upside than investing in BTC, which remains the dominant asset in the crypto market.
His position highlights a broader debate between Bitcoin maximalists and altcoin advocates, especially as XRP continues to lag despite positive legal and strategic developments.
Why a $5,800 XRP Is Unrealistic
Mow’s calculation, while arithmetically accurate, ignores XRP’s vast circulating supply of 58 billion tokens. At a price of $5,800 per XRP, the total market capitalization would balloon to $336 trillion—nearly three times the global GDP, which stood at approximately $105 trillion in 2024.
Such a valuation is, for now, economically and structurally implausible.
Key constraints limiting XRP’s path to $5,800:
- Excessive token supply: XRP releases up to 1 billion tokens monthly.
- Lack of deflationary mechanics: Unlike Bitcoin, XRP doesn’t burn enough tokens to offset inflationary pressure.
- Market dominance: Bitcoin controls over 50% of the crypto market cap; XRP hovers below 3%.
Unless Ripple initiates aggressive token burns or major supply cuts, a price near Mow’s target is out of reach.
Short-Term Price Outlook for XRP
Despite the improbability of hitting $5,800, XRP’s daily technicals suggest a possible short-term price rally. The token is showing early bullish signals:
- Bollinger Bands: Constriction signals potential breakout
- Awesome Oscillator: Green histogram bars forming, nearing positive territory
- Resistance level: Next resistance sits at $2.23, with breakout potential to $2.73
Continued growth in network activity and improving sentiment could support a near-term move toward multi-year highs.
While Samson Mow’s $5,800 XRP thesis underscores the dominance of Bitcoin, it’s mathematically impractical given current supply dynamics. However, technical indicators suggest XRP may still deliver meaningful gains for traders focused on the near term.