Ethereum struggles after two rejections near $1,950 as traders watch the crucial $1,870 support. ETF flows and market data point to growing caution.
Resistance Caps Ethereum Rally
Ethereum has encountered another setback after failing to overcome the same resistance zone for a second consecutive time. The cryptocurrency was rejected near the $1,915-$1,950 region on both July 30 and July 31, reinforcing the area as a major technical ceiling for buyers.
The latest rejection has redirected market attention toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1,870, a level that has repeatedly stabilized prices throughout the past week. Until Ethereum establishes a decisive move above resistance, short-term momentum is likely to remain constrained.
Adding to the challenge, ETH approached—but did not surpass—its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the July 31 rally. Sellers stepped in before the moving average was tested, confirming that multiple technical barriers are clustered within the same price range.
Despite the failed breakout, momentum indicators have not completely deteriorated. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 58, comfortably above its signal line at 52, suggesting bullish momentum has weakened but not disappeared. However, traders typically require a sustained close above both the 100-day SMA and the upper resistance boundary to validate a stronger recovery.
Support at $1,870 Takes Center Stage
Ethereum’s technical outlook now depends heavily on whether buyers can defend the $1,870 support level.
During July 31 trading, ETH briefly declined to approximately $1,875, placing the asset only a few dollars above this important Fibonacci retracement. The level has successfully contained every pullback over the previous five trading sessions, making it one of the market’s most closely watched support zones.
Should Ethereum close below $1,870 on a daily basis, sellers could quickly target lower price levels where buying activity previously emerged.
Key technical levels include:
- Support: $1,870
- Secondary support: $1,850
- Major support: $1,800
- Resistance: $1,915-$1,950
- Next upside target: Around $1,985 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)
A successful defense of support could encourage another attempt to challenge resistance, while a confirmed breakdown would likely strengthen bearish sentiment across the market.
ETF Flows Show Cautious Sentiment
Broader market conditions have provided limited assistance for Ethereum’s recovery.
Although both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged during their latest policy meetings, policymakers maintained a cautious tone. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, while several officials continued to support additional tightening. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its 1.0% policy rate despite one member favoring a modest increase.
Investment flows also reflected cautious positioning.
Ethereum spot ETF data recorded a $13.29 million net inflow on July 30, following a $18.65 million net outflow the previous day. Combined, the two sessions produced a modest $5.36 million net outflow, indicating that institutional demand has yet to regain consistent strength.
Trading activity across spot and derivatives markets painted a similar picture. Recent data showed:
- Spot market (24 hours): Net outflow of $41.93 million
- Spot market (3 days): Net outflow of $49.08 million
- Futures market (24 hours): Net outflow of $267.24 million
- Futures market (12 hours): Net outflow of $363.60 million
The concentration of selling during the latest trading sessions suggests market participants have become increasingly defensive as Ethereum struggles beneath major resistance.
For now, Ethereum remains trapped between strong resistance at $1,915-$1,950 and critical support near $1,870. A decisive daily close outside this range will likely determine whether ETH extends its recovery toward $1,985 or retreats toward $1,850 and $1,800 in the sessions ahead.