XRP could decline as much as 40% before launching a new bull cycle, according to technical analysis highlighting moving averages, RSI, and Fibonacci support.
Bearish Pattern Signals More Weakness
XRP is showing renewed signs of technical weakness after closing below its monthly 50-period moving average (MA50) for a second consecutive month, a pattern that market analysts believe could extend the current correction before the next major recovery begins.
A recent technical assessment published on TradingView by TradingShot argues that this is the first time since June 2024 that XRP has recorded two straight monthly closes beneath the MA50. During that earlier period, the digital asset was still consolidating within a long-term accumulation range before beginning its previous upward cycle.
Historical price behavior suggests that losing this technical level has often marked the final stages of a prolonged bear market. Based on previous market structures, the analyst projects XRP could retreat toward a support region between $0.80 and $0.65, representing a potential decline of approximately 25% to 40% from current prices.
The analysis compares today’s market structure with the 2021–2022 correction, when XRP eventually established a durable bottom near its monthly 100-period moving average before reversing higher.
Fibonacci Levels Strengthen Support
Beyond moving averages, TradingShot points to a long-term Fibonacci channel that has guided XRP’s price movement for several years. This framework identifies the $0.80-$0.65 area as one of the cryptocurrency’s strongest historical demand zones.
Several technical indicators converge within this range, increasing its significance:
- $0.80 aligns closely with the monthly 100-period moving average.
- The monthly 150-period moving average supports the lower portion of the projected range.
- $0.65 sits just below the important 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the same level that helped establish XRP’s June 2022 market bottom.
- The projected support zone also overlaps with XRP’s long-term six-year accumulation area.
Such technical confluence often attracts investor attention because multiple indicators identify the same price region as a potential reversal point.
RSI Hints at Future Recovery
Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may not have fully exhausted itself, although longer-term signals are beginning to improve.
TradingShot notes that XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has historically generated its strongest buying opportunities after touching a long-term descending trendline. Similar conditions appeared during the major market bottoms in 2020 and 2022, both of which preceded substantial rallies.
The RSI is approaching that historical support once again, leading the analyst to believe another long-term buy signal could emerge within the next three to four months. Until then, additional downside remains possible before momentum shifts decisively in favor of buyers.
At the time of analysis, XRP traded near $1.07, posting modest daily and weekly gains. However, broader technical conditions remain cautious. The token continues to trade below both its 50-day simple moving average at $1.10 and 200-day simple moving average at $1.35, indicating that the primary trend remains negative.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI of 45.43 reflects weakening momentum without entering oversold territory, suggesting there is still room for additional price movement before a stronger reversal signal develops.
Although the near-term outlook remains defensive, the longer-term projection is considerably more optimistic. According to the analysis, a confirmed breakout above XRP’s long-term higher-high resistance trendline after the correction could eventually create the technical foundation for a move toward the $6 price level, marking the beginning of a new bullish market cycle.