Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Tests $67 as NFP Drives Next Move Today

The silver price is trading just below $67 an ounce as investors wait for the August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. XAG/USD has pulled back modestly after a two-day advance, but selling pressure remains limited. Current market data show spot silver around $66.6-$66.7, with the session range extending from roughly $66.53 to $67.19.

The immediate market driver is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could materially alter expectations for the Federal Reserve and U.S. interest rates. Silver is sensitive to changes in Treasury yields and the dollar because it is priced in U.S. currency and, unlike interest-bearing assets, does not provide a regular yield.

A weaker employment report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy less restrictive, potentially reducing Treasury yields and weakening the dollar. That combination would generally provide a more supportive environment for silver.

A stronger payrolls figure could create the opposite response by lifting yields and strengthening the dollar, increasing pressure on precious metals.

Silver’s latest decline therefore does not yet establish a new bearish trend. Instead, the market is waiting for a macroeconomic catalyst to resolve the current technical uncertainty.

$67.83 is the first major hurdle

The technical structure remains mixed. XAG/USD is trading below the 200-day simple moving average at $72.84, while the supplied chart setup places the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $67.83 as the first important resistance level.

Silver’s momentum indicators are also sending conflicting signals. The Relative Strength Index remains in the mid-50s, indicating that buying pressure is positive but not excessive. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has moved into negative territory, suggesting that the recent recovery has lost some momentum.

That combination argues against assuming that a move toward $67 automatically signals a broader bullish reversal. Traders need confirmation above resistance.

The main levels are:

• Current price area: $66.6-$66.7
• First resistance: $67.83
• Major resistance: $71.89
• 200-day SMA: $72.84
• Initial support: $62.81
• Major downside floor: $54.69

A sustained move above $67.83 would strengthen the recovery and place the $71.89-$72.84 region into focus. That area combines the 50% Fibonacci retracement with the 200-day moving average, making it a more significant test for buyers.

Failure to clear $67.83 would leave the market vulnerable to another pullback toward $62.81. A decisive break beneath that support could reopen the path toward the previous cycle low near $54.69.

NFP sets the next silver move

The NFP report is particularly important because recent private-sector employment data already pointed to slower hiring. The ADP report showed U.S. private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations, while July’s increase was revised to 46,000.

The official payrolls report will provide a broader assessment of the labor market. A weaker result could lower expectations for a September Fed rate increase and put additional downward pressure on Treasury yields. That would remove one of the main obstacles facing silver.

The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% at its July meeting, while current policy expectations remain sensitive to incoming inflation and employment data.

The dollar is another important variable. A weaker U.S. currency generally makes dollar-priced commodities more affordable for international buyers. Silver can also receive support from industrial demand, although short-term XAG/USD trading is currently being dominated by monetary-policy expectations.

The technical picture will become clearer after the payrolls release. A move above $67.83 would give buyers an initial confirmation signal. A break below $62.81 would instead indicate that the recovery from the $63.30 area has failed to hold.

For now, silver remains caught between improving short-term price action and a broader chart structure that has yet to reclaim its major moving averages.

Conclusion

Silver is holding below $67 as traders await the U.S. payrolls report, leaving XAG/USD exposed to a sharp move once the data clarify Federal Reserve expectations. The first upside barrier is $67.83, followed by $71.89 and the 200-day SMA at $72.84. On the downside, $62.81 is the key initial support, with $54.69 representing the deeper floor. A weaker payrolls report could support silver through lower yields and a softer dollar, while stronger employment could reinforce selling pressure. The next decisive move will depend on both the NFP result and the technical reaction around these levels.