The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains in a tight range near 0.6300 against the US Dollar (USD) as investors tread cautiously ahead of fresh trade policies from Washington. On April 2, President Donald Trump is set to enforce a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, a move that has heightened fears of retaliatory measures from trading partners, including China and the European Union.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, has retreated to 104.30. Traditionally, heightened trade tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets like the USD, yet investors are growing wary of the broader economic implications of Trump’s policies, particularly their potential to stoke inflation and disrupt global supply chains.
With market volatility expected to rise, traders are also closely monitoring Federal Reserve (Fed) policy signals. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized a “wait-and-see” stance, noting that monetary policy adjustments should remain on hold until economic clarity emerges.
China’s Stimulus Efforts and the Australian Dollar
Despite trade concerns, the Australian Dollar has found some support from Beijing’s latest economic measures. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang announced plans to implement “more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies” aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade. Given Australia’s significant export exposure to China, such initiatives could provide a near-term cushion for the AUD.
Technical indicators suggest mixed sentiment for the AUD/USD pair. The currency is trading within an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, signaling indecision among market participants. The upper resistance level stands at 0.6408 (February 21 high), while the lower trendline originates from February’s low of 0.6087.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains anchored near 0.6300, reinforcing the pair’s sideways movement. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction.
Key Levels to Watch for AUD/USD
A break below 0.6187 (March 4 low) could trigger a fresh bearish wave, exposing the pair to further downside toward the February low of 0.6087 and the psychological support at 0.6000.
Conversely, a move above 0.6390 (March 18 high) may pave the way for a test of 0.6456 (December 5 high), with an eventual push toward the critical resistance level of 0.6500.
With global trade policies evolving rapidly, traders should remain vigilant to shifting market dynamics, particularly the interplay between US tariff measures and Chinese economic stimulus efforts.
