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Dow Futures Rise 44,337 as 84% Odds of Fed Rate Cut Fuel Market Rebound

U.S.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Editor at AAFX.IO
Aug 5, 2025
Updated Aug 5, 2025
Dow Futures Rise 44,337 as 84% Odds of Fed Rate Cut Fuel Market Rebound

U.S. stock futures edged upward Monday night, buoyed by investor optimism following a sharp Wall Street rebound earlier in the day. The upswing came after last week’s steep losses triggered by weak labor data and renewed trade tensions.

By 20:10 ET (00:10 GMT):

  • S&P 500 Futures rose 0.1% to 6,363.25 points
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 0.2% to 23,329.75 points
  • Dow Jones Futures advanced 0.1% to 44,337.0 points

The gains reflect market confidence that a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely coming in September, a sentiment reinforced by economic data and policy uncertainty.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Hit 84% After Jobs Miss

Monday’s stock market gains were underpinned by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will act soon to support the economy. Weak nonfarm payrolls data released last week showed sluggish job growth, raising alarms about the resilience of the U.S. labor market.

As a result, traders have assigned an 84% probability to a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This rate-cut optimism triggered a wave of dip-buying after a multi-day selloff.

Earlier Monday, the S&P 500 surged 1.5%, while the NASDAQ Composite jumped 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%, erasing much of last week’s losses tied to new trade barriers and economic headwinds.

The backdrop remains complex:

  • President Trump reiterated plans to increase tariffs on Indian imports, citing its purchases of Russian oil.
  • A 25% tariff on Indian goods was already imposed earlier this month.
  • Trump’s recent executive order added tariffs on imports from nearly 70 countries, raising investor anxiety over trade’s impact on inflation.

Palantir Rallies; More Earnings Ahead

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) posted strong earnings, with quarterly revenue surpassing $1 billion for the first time. The stock rose 4.5% in after-hours, following a 4% intraday gain as investors cheered its performance in the defense tech space.

Other notable moves:

  • Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) plunged over 13% in extended trade, after missing revenue estimates despite a bottom-line beat.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) will report results Tuesday.
  • Wednesday brings high-profile earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), McDonald’s (MCD), and Uber (UBER).

Key Earnings to Watch:

  • Tuesday: AMD, Rivian, Caterpillar
  • Wednesday: Disney, McDonald’s, Uber

With macroeconomic pressure building and central bank decisions looming, this earnings season could play a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment.

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Arslan Ali Butt
Arslan Ali Butt is the founder and Lead Market Analyst at AAFX.io, with more than a decade of experience covering forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, equities, and global macroeconomic trends. He holds an MBA in Finance and an MPhil in Behavioral Finance, combining academic research with practical market experience in technical analysis, dealing-desk operations, risk management, market sentiment, and trading psychology. Since 2014, Arslan has produced data-driven market analysis, price forecasts, trading education, and live webinars for international audiences. His research and commentary have been published by FXEmpire, FXLeaders, FXStreet, TradingKey, Cryptonews, KuCoin Learn, InsideBitcoins, Business2Community, ForexCrunch, EconomyWatch, ACY Securities, and FlowBank. Through AAFX.io, he provides independent, transparent, and clearly sourced market news and analysis designed to help readers understand financial markets and make better-informed decisions.
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Publisher clarification: AAFX.IO is an independent financial news publisher and is not affiliated with AAFX Trading or any similarly named forex broker.
Publisher clarification: AAFX.IO is an independent financial news publisher and is not affiliated with AAFX Trading or any similarly named forex broker.
Publisher clarification: AAFX.IO is an independent financial news publisher and is not affiliated with AAFX Trading or any similarly named forex broker.
Publisher clarification: AAFX.IO is an independent financial news publisher and is not affiliated with AAFX Trading or any similarly named forex broker.