EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1594 EMA Holds as Traders Await Friday NFP Reports

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1600, with the euro holding slightly above its 20-period exponential moving average as investors prepare for Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The pair remains broadly sideways, reflecting uncertainty over whether U.S. employment data will reinforce Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations or weaken the case for tighter policy.

FXStreet’s latest technical reading places EUR/USD at 1.1598, just above the 20-period EMA at 1.1594. The position leaves the short-term structure modestly constructive, but the margin is narrow. A daily close below the moving average would weaken that setup and could increase corrective pressure.

The 20-day EMA is closely followed because it reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average. When price remains above it, traders often treat the line as dynamic support. A sustained break below it would signal that recent buying momentum is losing strength.

Momentum is not stretched. The 14-day RSI is at 53.23, keeping the indicator in neutral territory while showing a slight positive bias. That reading suggests the euro has room to move in either direction without entering an overbought or oversold condition.

1.1594 EMA is the key support

The immediate technical level is the 1.1594 EMA. As long as EUR/USD remains above that level, buyers retain a limited near-term advantage. A decisive break below it would expose the pair to deeper corrective levels and could shift short-term control back toward the dollar.

On the upside, the 1.1687-1.1714 range remains the major supply area identified by the latest technical analysis. A sustained break above that zone would strengthen the bullish structure and indicate that the recent retreat has been absorbed.

The technical map is therefore relatively clear:

• Current price: 1.1598
• 20-period EMA: 1.1594
• RSI: 53.23
• Major resistance: 1.1687-1.1714

The narrow gap between spot price and the EMA makes the next daily close particularly important. Holding above 1.1594 would preserve the current structure, while a break below would increase the probability of a wider pullback.

NFP and ECB drive the next move

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the most immediate catalyst for EUR/USD. Investors are using the data to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path after weaker private payroll growth signaled some moderation in U.S. hiring. Reuters reported that markets were assigning roughly a 60% probability to a September Fed rate increase, although pricing has moved sharply with recent economic data.

A stronger-than-expected payrolls figure could lift U.S. Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar by increasing expectations for tighter monetary policy. That would put pressure on EUR/USD and could push the pair below the 20-day EMA.

A weaker employment report would carry the opposite implication. Lower rate-hike expectations could reduce Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, giving the euro more room to challenge the 1.1687-1.1714 resistance zone.

The euro also has domestic support from expectations around the European Central Bank. A Reuters poll of 65 economists showed unanimous expectations for a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase on September 10, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. The expected move follows eurozone inflation rising to 3.3% in August, although economists generally expect the ECB to stop after the September increase.

That creates a two-sided policy setup. The Federal Reserve could tighten while the ECB is also expected to raise rates, making the relative movement in U.S. and eurozone yields more important than either central bank’s decision in isolation.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is holding close to 1.1600, with the 20-period EMA at 1.1594 acting as the immediate technical dividing line. The RSI near 53 shows balanced momentum, while 1.1687-1.1714 remains the main upside resistance zone. Friday’s U.S. payrolls report could determine whether the dollar regains momentum or retreats further. At the same time, expectations for a September ECB rate hike provide support for the euro. A sustained break below 1.1594 would weaken the near-term structure, while a move above resistance would strengthen the bullish outlook.