Gold extended its decline in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors sharply reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The shift reinforced dollar strength and pulled investors away from non-yielding safe-haven assets. Markets also braced for a long-delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report—now the most critical data point before the Fed’s December 10–11 policy meeting.
Spot gold dipped 0.7% to $4,019.19 an ounce, while December futures fell 1.4% to $4,018.89 in early trading. The losses reflect rising uncertainty around U.S. economic momentum and the Fed’s visibility into key indicators following delays caused by the extended government shutdown.
Market Repricing Ahead of September Jobs Report
With limited official data available, traders are increasingly cautious about assuming policy easing this year. The September payrolls release on Thursday is set to become the last major labor reading before the December rate decision.
CME FedWatch data shows a 42.4% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, compared with 57.6% odds of no change. The recalibration has pushed investors back toward U.S. Treasuries, which offer higher and more predictable returns in a “higher-for-longer” rate environment.
Recent remarks from Fed officials have added to the uncertainty, offering no clear consensus on the direction of policy. The ambiguity has made gold particularly vulnerable, given its sensitivity to interest rates and dollar movements.
Key factors driving the shift:
- Reduced confidence in December rate relief
- Fed caution amid delayed data releases
- Treasuries regaining appeal against non-yielding gold
- Mixed signals from central bank policymakers
Dollar Strength Weighs on Metals and Commodities
The U.S. dollar extended its recent rally, supported by expectations that rates will remain steady and by global fiscal concerns that drove safe-haven flows into the greenback. A surge in Japanese government bond yields weakened the yen, further boosting dollar demand.
The stronger dollar pressured precious and industrial metals across the board:
- Platinum: down 0.7% to $1,526.77/oz
- Silver: down 0.7% to $49.8585/oz
- LME Copper: down 0.8% to $10,695.90/ton, reversing last week’s gains
With the dollar strengthening and policy expectations shifting, the metals market faces renewed volatility. Traders now look to Thursday’s labor report for clarity—though the data may raise as many questions as it answers.
