A weaker U.S. dollar, global central bank rate cuts, and rising geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices as they trade close to record highs in the $2,660 range.
As global interest rates fall and investors brace for further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, demand for the non-yielding asset continues to rise.
Additionally, heightened tensions in the Middle East are driving safe-haven flows into gold, further boosting its bullish outlook.
Central Bank Rate Cuts Support Gold’s Rally
In recent days, several central banks, including the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Swedish Riksbank, and the Czech National Bank, have cut interest rates, making gold a more attractive investment.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, driving demand as investors seek safer alternatives amidst global economic uncertainty.
The weakening U.S. dollar also contributes to gold’s bullish momentum. With central banks worldwide easing monetary policy, the dollar faces downward pressure, bolstering gold’s appeal.
Gold, priced in U.S. dollars, becomes more affordable for foreign investors as the dollar weakens, adding further tailwinds to the yellow metal.
Geopolitical factors are also playing a significant role in driving up demand for gold. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, have escalated, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
The situation has intensified, with Israeli Defense Forces preparing for a potential ground offensive in Lebanon, raising the stakes and boosting risk aversion.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Drive Gold Prices Higher
Despite positive U.S. housing data, which showed higher-than-expected new home sales and mortgage applications in August, markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
Investors are now pricing in a strong possibility of a 50-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting.
Market-based probabilities, tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, show a more than 60% chance of a 50 bps cut, with a smaller 25 bps reduction as the alternative.
This dovish outlook has kept the U.S. dollar under pressure, further strengthening gold’s bullish momentum.
Investors will closely watch Thursday’s U.S. labour market data, particularly jobless claims, as they could influence expectations for future rate cuts.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s dovish remarks on Wednesday further fueled expectations for aggressive easing.
Kugler’s comments, scoring a 3.2 on FXStreet’s FedTracker scale, hinted at the possibility of more rate cuts, keeping the U.S. dollar subdued and supporting gold’s rally.
Gold’s Technical Outlook Remains Bullish
Technically, gold remains on a solid uptrend. Currently trading at $2,675.07, up 0.22%, gold has broken through key resistance levels, and traders are eyeing further upside potential.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,677.62, with additional targets at $2,691.81 and $2,706.81. A successful break above these levels could drive gold toward fresh highs, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues with its dovish tone.
On the downside, gold has support at $2,660.36, with stronger backup at $2,650.31 and $2,639.64, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) aligns.
The 50-EMA at $2,639.64 has served as a reliable support level in recent weeks, and as long as prices remain above this threshold, the bullish outlook is expected to continue.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also shows a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below overbought levels at 68, signalling robust buying pressure but also urging caution as gold approaches resistance.
Conclusion
A weaker U.S. dollar, rising geopolitical risks, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts are all supporting gold’s rally.
With the yellow metal trading near record highs, investors will keep a close watch on central bank decisions and key economic data releases for clues on the future trajectory of gold prices.
Key Insights:
- Immediate resistance is at $2,677.62, with further resistance at $2,691.81 and $2,706.81.
- Strong support lies at $2,660.36 and $2,639.64 (50-EMA), keeping bullish momentum intact.
- MACD signals upside potential, while RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting cautious optimism.
