Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,100. The investment bank attributed the upward revision to stronger-than-expected inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and persistent demand from central banks, particularly in Asia.
The bank also expanded its forecast range to $3,250–$3,520 per ounce, reflecting increased optimism over gold’s long-term appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Key drivers behind Goldman’s upgraded outlook include:
- Central Bank Buying: Large Asian central banks are expected to sustain their aggressive gold purchases over the next three to six years. Goldman raised its demand projection to 70 tonnes per month, up from 50 tonnes.
- U.S. Policy Uncertainty: Heightened economic and political volatility could drive further gold accumulation as a safe-haven asset.
- Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Goldman anticipates two 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2025 and one additional cut in early 2026, which could support increased ETF inflows.
ETF Inflows Could Push Gold to $3,680
Goldman Sachs outlined two potential upside risks that could propel gold prices beyond their base forecast:
- Recession-Induced Rate Cuts: If an economic downturn forces the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle, gold could reach $3,410 per ounce by the end of 2025.
- Investor Demand Spike: If ETF holdings return to pandemic-era levels, increased investor demand could push prices as high as $3,680 per ounce.
While the long-term trend remains bullish, the investment bank acknowledged that certain events could create short-term entry points for investors.
Potential Short-Term Risks for Gold
Despite a strong forecast, Goldman Sachs identified two possible risks that could lead to temporary gold price dips:
- Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement: A geopolitical resolution could trigger short-term speculative selling, but it is unlikely to impact long-term structural demand.
- Stock Market Sell-Off: A sharp downturn in equities could lead to margin-driven liquidations of gold holdings. However, the bank expects this to be temporary, with speculative demand recovering quickly.
Goldman Sachs continues to recommend a long gold trade, citing robust fundamentals and persistent demand from central banks and institutional investors.
With increasing economic uncertainty and sustained central bank buying, gold remains a key asset for investors seeking stability in 2025 and beyond.
