Silver Price Forecast: $61.65 Bounce Faces $63.22 Resistance as Bears Hold

Silver is attempting to recover after finding support near $61.65, with the latest move reflecting a short-term improvement in momentum rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Spot silver was recently around $61.55, up more than 2% on Monday, after trading as low as $60.24 during the session.

The rebound comes as precious metals respond to changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Yet silver remains below major moving-average resistance, leaving the broader technical structure vulnerable.

Silver rebound meets major resistance

On the five-hour chart, silver has developed several signals favoring a short-term recovery. A bullish MACD crossover and bullish engulfing candle appeared around $61.65, while the Relative Strength Index climbed to 48.75 from previously oversold conditions.

That improvement gives buyers room to test higher levels, but it does not yet establish a durable bullish trend. Silver remains below its 200-period simple moving average at $65.54, leaving the longer-term structure under pressure.

The 50-period SMA at $63.22 and SuperTrend near $63.12 form the first major resistance cluster. A move through this zone would improve the short-term setup, but the broader descending channel remains an obstacle.

Fed outlook adds to silver volatility

Silver’s macro backdrop remains sensitive to U.S. interest rates and the dollar. The September U.S. employment report showed only 29,000 jobs were added, far below the 90,000 consensus estimate, while August payroll growth was revised to 133,000. The weak report sharply reduced expectations for an October Fed rate increase.

Lower rate expectations can support non-yielding metals by reducing the relative appeal of cash and bonds. Silver also has an industrial demand component, including applications in electronics, solar technology and electric vehicles, giving its price additional sensitivity to global economic conditions.

However, elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firm dollar remain important risks. Recent market commentary showed the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, a level that can increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

• Current spot area: around $61.55
• Session range: $60.24-$61.95
• Immediate resistance: $63.12-$63.22

$60 support remains the key test

The $60.00 area is the critical downside threshold. It sits close to the 61.8% Fibonacci support highlighted by the technical setup, while $59.90 marks a nearby swing low. A decisive break beneath these levels would weaken the rebound and expose silver to another leg lower.

Conversely, sustained buying above $63.22 would put $64.00 into focus, where trendline and Ichimoku resistance could limit further gains. A clean break of that barrier would provide stronger evidence that the five-hour recovery is developing into a broader reversal.

For now, the market remains caught between improving short-term momentum and a weaker higher-timeframe structure. Traders should therefore treat the $61.17-$63.12 region as a congestion area rather than assume that the latest bounce has ended the downtrend.

Conclusion

Silver’s rebound from $61.65 has improved near-term momentum, but the broader bearish structure remains intact below $63.22 and the $65.54 200-period SMA. Holding $60 could allow another recovery attempt, while a break below $59.90 would reinforce downside momentum. The next decisive signal is likely to come from either a breakout above $64 or a failure beneath $60.