EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1425 Low Puts 1.1410 Support in Focus

EUR/USD remains under selling pressure, falling for a third consecutive session and reaching around 1.1425, its lowest level since July 29. The move reflects renewed strength in the US Dollar as investors assess a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy outlook.

The dollar has regained ground as markets price the possibility of additional US rate increases. The Dollar Index has moved back above 100, supported by higher US yields and expectations that inflation risks could keep monetary policy restrictive.

The euro is facing a separate source of pressure from political developments in Germany. Recent political setbacks have added uncertainty around the region’s economic outlook, while the European Central Bank has signaled that future decisions will remain dependent on inflation, growth and broader economic conditions.

Technical Signals Keep Bears Active

The technical structure remains negative after EUR/USD broke below its 100-day Simple Moving Average last week. The pair is also trading beneath several key Fibonacci retracement levels, keeping recovery attempts under pressure.

The Relative Strength Index is around 29.7, placing the indicator near oversold territory. That suggests selling conditions are stretched, although an oversold reading alone does not establish a reversal.

The MACD remains below zero, indicating that downside momentum is still present. Current technical levels include:

• 1.1425: Recent intraday low and immediate downside reference
• 1.1410: 78.6% Fibonacci support
• 1.1329: Prior swing low and deeper structural support
• 1.1474: 61.8% Fibonacci resistance
• 1.1519: 50.0% Fibonacci resistance

The latest technical readings from Investing.com also show a strongly bearish daily configuration, with its moving-average and technical-indicator summaries registering sell signals.

EUR/USD Recovery Faces 1.1540

Any rebound would first need to reclaim 1.1474, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained move above that level could shift attention toward 1.1519, followed by the 100-day SMA near 1.1540.

Above 1.1540, the next resistance levels are 1.1563, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement, and 1.1619, the 23.6% retracement. The broader recovery barrier remains near the cycle high around 1.1708.

On the downside, a decisive break below 1.1410 would expose the prior swing low near 1.1329. The pair’s recent price history confirms that EUR/USD has been declining steadily since mid-September, with the September 23 session trading around the lower end of its recent range.

Conclusion:

EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1425, with a firm US Dollar and the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy outlook limiting demand for the euro. The technical picture also favors caution, as the pair remains below its 100-day SMA while MACD stays negative. The immediate levels are 1.1410 on the downside and 1.1474 on the upside. A break below 1.1410 would expose 1.1329, while a recovery above 1.1474 could open the path toward 1.1519 and 1.1540.