Silver Price Forecast: $61.24 Tests $60.66 Support as Bears Gain Control

Silver is showing a weak technical structure after a sharp decline, with the supplied five-hour chart placing XAG/USD around $61.24. The metal remains below its 200-period moving average at $65.58, keeping the broader short-term trend under pressure.

The latest market data confirms the scale of the recent selloff. XAG/USD closed Sept. 28 near $60.81 after falling 4.6%, with the session reaching a low around $60.39. Current data on Sept. 29 shows silver trading close to $61, keeping the market near the lower end of that recent range.

The decline has also occurred as higher U.S. yields and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have pressured precious metals. Silver, like gold, does not generate interest income, making higher yields an important factor for investor positioning.

$60.66 Defines the Bearish Setup

The supplied chart identifies $60.66 as the critical support level. A decisive five-hour close below that area would strengthen the case for further downside and confirm that sellers are extending the recent breakdown.

Momentum readings also favor the bears, although they show that the market is approaching oversold territory. The supplied five-hour RSI is 33.4, while current Investing.com technical data places RSI around 34.4 and classifies the broader setup as Strong Sell.

• Critical support: $60.66
• Bearish invalidation: $60.00
• Resistance: $63.50–$64.50
• 200-period SMA: $65.58

Current technical data also shows the 20-period, 50-period, 100-period and 200-period moving averages positioned above spot silver, reinforcing the downside structure.

Resistance Holds the Recovery Test

Any rebound must first clear the $63.50–$64.50 region. The supplied setup places the SMA20 and SuperTrend around this area, creating a significant barrier for buyers.

A recovery through $64.00 would improve the short-term picture, but a stronger technical shift would require silver to reclaim the higher moving-average zone. Until then, rallies could encounter selling pressure rather than signal a confirmed trend reversal.

The oversold readings create a separate risk for bearish traders. RSI near 33 does not automatically mean that silver must rebound, but it does increase the possibility of a short-term recovery if buyers defend $60.66.

Conclusion

Silver remains vulnerable while XAG/USD trades below its major moving averages and near $61.24. The $60.66 level is the immediate technical line to watch: a sustained break could expose the market to another leg lower, while a successful defense could trigger a corrective bounce. On the upside, $63.50–$64.50 is the first major recovery zone. The combination of weak trend signals and near-oversold momentum makes confirmation particularly important before treating either move as a lasting breakout.