Global oil prices continued to slide for the second consecutive session, as traders brace for a potential production boost from OPEC+.
By 0507 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 24 cents or 0.4%, trading at $64.50 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped by 29 cents or 0.5%, reaching $61.24 a barrel. Monday’s session was thin for WTI due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.
According to ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes, “Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply.” The coalition of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, is expected to finalize plans this week to increase July output by 411,000 barrels per day, as sources revealed to Reuters.
Additional insights include:
- Russia’s Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted no formal discussions have occurred yet.
- The online ministerial meeting is scheduled for May 28.
- Eight OPEC+ members pledging voluntary cuts are set to meet on May 31, a day earlier than planned.
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Add to Uncertainty
Oil market sentiment is also being shaped by geopolitical developments, especially the delicate U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled confidence in Iran’s resilience if talks collapse, which could mean continued U.S. sanctions and limited Iranian oil supply—both supportive factors for oil prices.
- Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has raised its June official selling price for light crude destined for Asia by $1.80 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, up from a $1.65 premium in May.
Meanwhile, a potential extension of U.S. trade talks with the European Union until July 9 may temper fears of tariffs and limit immediate downside for oil prices.
Market Braces for OPEC+ Decision and Price Swings
The oil market remains poised for volatility as traders await OPEC+’s final decision on output levels later this week. The group had already agreed to expedite production increases for June, and any additional barrels could exert further downward pressure on prices.
Key takeaways:
- Brent crude: $64.50/bbl (-0.4%)
- WTI crude: $61.24/bbl (-0.5%)
- OPEC+ meeting: May 28 (online), with additional voluntary cuts review on May 31
- Iran premium for Asia buyers: $1.80/bbl for June
Despite these pressures, traders continue to monitor geopolitical risks and demand prospects that may counterbalance the expected supply increase.